Virus keeps me busy
April 9, 2020
Naked Trader - Proudly self-isolating since 2001 -
**
BEGINNER/IMPROVER SEMINAR: SPEND A DAY WITH ME AND LIVE MARKETS
**Best Financial Educational Provider, International Finance Awards.**
NEW OVERFLOW DATE: MAY 6TH Online Zoom seminar! Venue: Your place!
(April 15th AND April 23rd dates are sold out)
If you want more than the book and see me do it live, come and spend a day with me and live markets online! (beginners and improvers welcome). If a beginner there is guaranteed no jargon! See trades from my own accounts, research, level 2, and finding great shares from scratch and tons more. While the virus prevents the usual hotel
seminars this seems a decent solution and having done an online follow
up one and a spreadbetting one they worked well! All you need is a computer at home to join in.
Max half of the number I can usually do so only first come first served for bookings. You can also express interest
in the next hotel one if you don't fancy virtual.
Mail me at robbiethetrader with "May seminar interested" and I'll send you details.
******
New follow up online seminar May 20th: For those who've been
to a starter hotel or online seminar before - more in depth, lots
of live trading, research, virus thought, supply and demand
plus your ideas - 10am-5pm from your place! email me
at robbiethetrader with "follow up interested".
Website update delivered to your email plus an extra
exclusive higher risk trade or two made for my sipp on update day , mail
me at robbiethetrader with "email interested" in subject
line and will send you details.
******
NAKED TRADER PODCAST 3 !
>
Lots of info on shares and trading plus competitions, music and fun
with your DJ NT.
PREVIOUS PODCASTS:
>
And:
Thanks for all the kind words on the new book Naked Trader 5 and glad you're enjoying it.
This discount code will work for 30pc off on the harriman house site
and that is NT5ROBBIE. Or Amazon has it! The audio version is out now! Go to and search for naked trader. Scroll down and make sure you download
edition 5, the one with me with a blue shirt on.
Next update Apr 30th
Is it actually Easter. Doesn't feel like it! I love Easter as it is like
Christmas without the hassle and then dark nights.
But isn't it weird this time round? Are people going to go out and
have parties in the hot sun and make the govt take even stricter
measures? Not really a lot of "distancing" going on round here.
We are going to do live quizzes on Zoom on Easter Day with family in Ireland and the States. Hope whatever you are doing you will be ok. Remember all this will
pass in time and we will look back on 2020 as being that weird year.
I feel sorry for Boris and like all of you desperately hoping he will be ok.
He has surprised me - I think he has been a decent leader so far. He is
obviously a hard worker which is probably why the virus hit hard and he wants
the best for everyone I think. Come on Boris get out of that hospital!
Obviously being a hypochondriac I am convinced it is only a matter of when my
teenager gives me the virus "Hey dad fancy a game on the xbox - high five!"
Then I am going to die horribly at the excel centre with the last words I
hear are "I think he's gone".
One virus bonus I thought I would have if I didn't get it was the emails
would go nice and quiet, no-one would be interested in trading for a
while and I could relax and watch box sets.
Weirdly the opposite has happened.
I assumed I wouldn't be doing any more seminars till September.
Wrong!
The online seminar bookings are crazy. The Spreadbetting seminar sold out and the 15th April beginner/improver one sold out fast.
STOP PRESS: APRIL 23RD SOLD OUT NEW DATE
MAY 6TH
I have set up an overflow one on April 23
rd and that is already virtually filling up! If you missed out on the
Apr 15th date you can now book May 6th
Just mail me at robbiethetrader with "May overflow seminar interested" for details.
I didn't realise the pent up demand from those who preferred a live
online seminar meaning you didn't have to travel if you lived a long way away.
One example I have two booked in for the 15th who live in Australia!
I also didn't realise how easy it is to run an online one once the tech
is mastered.
Those of you "coming" to the april 23rd online seminar should get
a questionaire over the weekend so I can judge the level. Elizabeth
will also be in touch- she will manage all the tech parts and will
chat to each of you live before we start to check you are all
happy.
Really enjoyed doing the Spreadbetting one online one yesterday - it is very different online than
in real live - takes more concentration from me on a screen all day which
is ok at the time but boy did I crash afterwards!
Indeed once finished I collapsed in a heap and couldn't move for the rest
of the evening!
But it had its fun and interesting parts too as people "Put their virtual
hands up" and participate. It was easy to hear everyone who wanted
to contribute and there were some great questions along the way.
Thanks to you all for attending!!
Lots of interesting things came up and we used
my spreadbetting accounts live all day. I think one or two were surprised
at the amounts I have really made from it. We also did some live trades
to see where best to place stops, whether to get out fast of
stay with it. Thanks for the lovely feedback!
Here's one feedback from Yasmin:
If I was tired - I am sure you both were!
Elizabeth - you did a fantastic job managing all the participants - just like a pro - and I mean it sincerely. There is an air of calmness but also a recognition that you are "fix-it" person if things go wrong during the day.
Robbie - as usual, you lived up to expectations! It was a great seminar and I hope that I am able to use your wise words and tips over the coming months and years. Funnily enough, when you were explaining how you built up the FTSE shorts, I did something similar when the election results came out last year until the end of the Christmas rally. It is about patience and building up....and letting go of the losses!!"
Thanks Yasmin!
Look forwards to meeting more of you virtually on April 23rd
and the new overflow May 6.
Hope you are all coping well and have not got the virus or if you did
it was a mild one.
There are some virus upsides.
Peace - no planes coming over into Heathrow.
Time is slower - time to catch up away from busy lives. Declutter.
Declutter overworked brains.
Maybe more people will work from home. Why do people have to
work 9-5 anyway?
Naked Rambling
I tried to do some "cooking" and thought
how hard could it be to replicate my fave dish at home which is Brasserie
Blanc's amazing Beef Bourginon which I miss terribly.
I got all the ingredients and stood ready with the youtube video featuring the
great Raymond Blanc himself.
I was fine till three minutes in when there was a bombshell. "How long should we
marinate the beef mix for?" asked assistant chef.
Raymond's answer was along the lines of a few days but overnight would do!!
Miffed, I carried on anyway. It was quite hard work frankly, it resulted in the
worst kitchen mess ever and the result was rubbish
without the marinade. Plus I chopped the veg too thick.
And after dishing it up to my family to much pretend acclaim my son remarked he'd
seen the cat licking the dishout spoon just before I dished out. They can't get
the virus can they?
I felt the same as when I bought a blueberry plants which cost £60 and all they
ever yielded were three blueberries once at £20 a blueberry.
One major problem the virus has exposed is: What happened to saving for a "rainy day"?
That rainy day is now here and we know hardly anyone has any rainy day money.
My parent's generation always taught us to save and put small money away when we could.
However the up and coming generation has no care about saving. They want whatever it is, they want it now. Surely all you do is tap your card - what's the problem?
You may say, ok for you bigshot but I don't earn enough to save. Really?
How's about tapping a card for a £4 coffee every day? Or that £3 can of drink?
Or loads of other stuff you don't need?
Just £5 a day saved is nearly £2,000 in a year! Perhaps the virus will teach us
all to spend less, save more for the future.
The state came in to bail people out now. But what if it gets to the stage
when it can't anymore?
Let's hope the virus will teach people to consider saving.
At least there is some decent TV around at the mo!
The Nest (****)
It's a bit weird to hear the Line of Duty guy talk Scottish! But after
getting over that it's been a decent idea well executed.
Hmmm, we need a surrogate to have a baby. Hey, why don't we
hire a crazy murdering 18-year old? Great idea!
Lots of decent drama and what happens next moments.
Homeland (****)
Not much time left for Carrie to cry and moan as we head into the
last couple of episodes ever.
I knew Max would be a gonner. Let's just hope at the end we find
out the baddie was Saul all along. Now that would really make
Carrie cry.
Better Call Saul (*****)
What better way to forget about the virus than enjoying Saul's
crazy world? Ooh Hank is back! It is great to see the original
Breaking Bad characters starting to appear.
What brilliant camera the ice cream and the ants.
Even better the intense fury of our lead villain as his member of
staff could not clean the friers well enough. Lovely!!
Unorthodox (****) (Netflix) This is a nice discovery. A strict Jewish
girl does a runner from her arranged marriage to a nice but boring
guy. She's off to Berlin but her husband is determined to get
her back.
Easyjet went for a bailout meeting with the government.
Reps were only allowed one small bag each, if they wanted to bring
in another to the meeting they were charged £50 extra.
SEMINAR NEWS
New date May 6th Online Zoom seminar! (April 15/23rd dates sold out)
If you want more than the book and see me do it live, come and spend a day with me and live markets online! (beginners and improvers welcome). If a beginner there is guaranteed no jargon! See trades from my own accounts, research, level 2, and finding great shares from scratch and tons more. While the virus prevents the usual hotel
seminars this seems a decent solution and having done an online follow
up one this week, it worked well! All you need is a computer at home to join in.
Mail me at robbiethetrader with "May seminar interested" and I'll send you details.
******
Some recent feedback:
He actually takes you candidly right into the mental process involved in his successful trading, making it a pretty amazing display, even showing his own investment accounts right there on the screen. This is a genuine coaching session in how to trade like him if you put in the graft. My advice therefore would be to sign up for this while he is still prepared to do it.'
When I signed up to your course my goal was to make 20% p.a., I've achieved that in less than six months. Your course was pretty much going to be my last attempt at trading, So once again thank you, it's by far the best money I've ever spent on trading education and probably on education full stop."
I felt we were in for a long day of numbers, PowerPoints and dry talk.
Instead, what we got was fascinating and enjoyable mix of punchy insights, merriment and wise-cracks, sharp wit, and to the point no nonsense advice. I sat down at 9:45am and didn't look at the time again until way after 8pm at which point I had to drag myself away."
I read your books and understood the words "" however I was missing that final nugget of knowledge "" actually seeing you valuate a company and make that buy/no buy decision live means I now get it."
LOTS OF LOVELY DISCOUNTS HERE!!!
See above for discount on NT 5
spreadbet book edition 2
>
And add code RobbieNTSB2 to get it for £12 and free posting. (Paperback
only but you get the e-book free with it).
To buy Trade Like A Shark at £12.25 plus p and p use this link
> Use code NTSHARK at the checkout.
***
25% off Stockopedia and free trial
Stockopedia is indeed like a stock market encyclopedia and a great place to scan for new shares to buy, check out fundamentals...there is even a stock screen loosely based on my criteria! You can try it for free too.
For your 25% discount off any sub (eg £56 discount off UK sub) and free 14 day trial you need this link:
>
ADVFN offers
Level 2 through me it is only £462 for your first year including VAT!
This compares to £ 638.88 direct from advfn so this deal saves you £176.88!
Level 2 gives you access to all the market maker positions and the order book and I would not trade without it! More on level 2 in my book and I spend hours on it at my seminars.
ADVFN's bronze subscription - normally £97.53 pa - available from me for only £66! (inc vat) That's a saving of £30! You get ADVFN's premium top lists which I think are a must for finding great stock picks. That includes great lists like ex dividend dates, plus chart breakouts and downs. All as explained in the book.
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Just mail me at robbiethetrader if you'd like any of these with "advfn offers" in the subject line. Please note if you want to discontinue the sub you need to give a month's notice by post. L2 offer includes silver and bronze.
THIS SITE TO YOUR MAILBOX!
Website to your email PLUS extra trades which do not make it to the
website for my pension
If you'd like the website material sent to your mailbox so you
get everything before the site itself is updated every other Thursday
plus one or two exclusive extra higher risk trades not featured on the
site mail me at robbiethetrader with "email" in the
subject line and I will send you details on how to subscribe.
MARKETS
EMAILS: I do beg you not to send me emails asking me for advice on a particular share. It isn't legal for me to give you individual advice and all I do is send you a mail saying that, which wastes a lot of my time and yours too.
****
COPYING TRADES: I can't stop you from copying a trade I made but remember the price may already be a lot higher than I paid indeed I hope it is as buying at good prices is what I do for a living. You may be buying at the top and could easily lose money. Also I can make terrible mistakes and have done in the past. I could also sell before you or before the share tanks. I may still be holding in a year when you sold at a loss. Always do your own research, don't jump in blindly. Market makers are very clever at knowing how to make you pay top dollar and then push you out at a loss. This site is about sensible investment and learning how to trade sensibly and is not a tipping site. Beware. Never push buy on anything till you've done proper research and got yourself a sensible price.
***
MARKETS
April 15th/23rd online seminars sold out -
New overflow date May 6th for beginners and improvers.
If interested mail me at robbiethetrader with
May interested"
Is all this for real? Still hoping I'm going to wake up, none of this has happened
and I am back to enjoying the Xmas rally!
Talk about manic markets! A massive fall then a massive rise!
This is still on as I write.
After taking virus fright and tanking like crazy, the last few days
have even been crazier on the upside.
The American market seems to be gung ho, seemingly now
ignoring all the bad news and only concentrating on potential
good news.
At the rate they are going it is like the virus was a nothing really and
what's the problem?
As they say markets can remain irrational on the downside or upside longer
than you can stay solvent.
My thought? I am following it gently and very cautiously.
Which means nearly all the ftse shorts were stopped out and profits banked
and I've been cautiously dipping my toe back in.
But I am staying in a lot of cash. If there is any bad news at all virus wise
current greed and fear of missing out on a rise could turn into a
second wave of market meltdown.
If you buy too much it can be quite hard to ditch shares when they
are tanking.
Reasons to be cautious: The problem is we've never had this happen before - and it's a bit difficult to make any
real decisions until the game plays out some more.
After all we don't know when things can re-open, planes can fly, businesses re-start. The
longer it takes the longer the economy will take to recover.
What is the current market pricing in? Some of the bad news? All of it? What about
further down the road?
Is it time to buy now, stick stuff away at cheap prices and wait? Or is there still a wave
of downside to come?
If only we had a crystal ball.
For now it simply seems sensible to me to stay in a lot of cash and await developments while perhaps putting small money into some
real bargains.
Yes there are obvious looking bargains. Maybe things will get back
to normal quicker than we think. But then? The market looks forwards
and maybe after a quick rise it will go: "Hang on look at all the job losses
and the closures and think about the tax rises coming.."
We could see a quick recovery but then sudden further downside.
I am thinking: time for patience. If you get stuck on the wrong side of
a wave, more serious damage could be done to portfolios.
So why not relax and see how things play out a bit first? If going in
just buy small for now so it is easy to get out.
I've nibbled a little at a few shares that have come down so much that
they are hard to resist for small money at least.
AB Dynamics (ABDP) has more than halved since its peak and for
the first time in a while trades on a reasonable rating.
This tester of cars has got a very decent niche and at depressed prices
I am thinking stick away now in the isa for a year or two.
I am only nibbling at shares that have a good cash pile and AB does,
at over £35m. It says it is not sure how the virus will hit its markets but
it is not worried about the components it needs for now.
Given self driving cars is the next big thing one can easily imagine the
share doubling again in time and perhaps even getting bid for. In the
meantime it isn't going bust!
Thanks very much to follow up seminar delegate Vikesh who pointed out
something interesting on the website of TP Group. (TPG)
>
It is looking at using its own systems to provide oxegen producing capabilities for hospitals.
I've bought some here - it is an interesting smaller defence company which seems
to keep winning contracts.
It got an extension to its European Space Agency contract to end 2022
and in March got a £7m loan which secures its finances for the time being.
In February it got a £5m Ministry of Defence contract. At under £50m it
is just at the bottom of the value of companies I would usually buy but
I think there could be potential 50pc upside from here with patience.
Andrews Sykes (ASY) released a very decent statement - with the floods
hitting the UK badly its pumping equipment was in demand.
It expects to do its second best year ever. It says virus problems have not
affected it too badly so far and it has a big cash pile of £28m to see
it through anyhow. Nice longer-term tuckaway.
ITV has been badly hit by the virus as advertising becomes hard to
come by and filming of many shows has had to stop for now. Upside
I suppose is there are a lot more viewers around stuck at home.
Despite the virus hit at this depressed price ITV looks like a decent
recovery play. It's well under half the price you would have paid for it
just a few months ago.
If I was Amazon or Apple etc with load of cash this looks like a good
time to swoop and snap it up. I reckon any bidder would have to pay
70% plus over the current price.
I bought some at a nice depressed price and also bought some live
at yesterdays online spreadbetting seminar.
A small share that has been battered is K3C but at the depressed price
I snapped some up.
It is right on long-time support and there could be massive upside.
it just reported and said it is pleased with current trading and confident
in its balance sheet.
All its three brands have been showing positive trends. It quickly took
short term measures to combat the virus. Management took pay
cuts and with furloughs costs have been reduced by 70pc.
It has £7m in cash reserves, no debt and an experienced boss who has
managed business recovery before in the 2008 melee.
I have also
bought some Elecosoft (ELCO)
This one has just announced some very nice figures in its statement
with debt eliminated and now in net cash.
It has changed swiftly for the virus with face to face meetings transferred
to online for now.
They say there has been significant increase in demand for hosted and
mobile training and support services as well as reducing costs.
Looks like another with patience that could provide decent upside.
I picked up some Begbies Traynor (BEG). Sadly we are heading into
an environment where insolvencies are likely and that would help it.
It also specialises in trying to turn struggling companies around so surely
it is going to have a lot of work to do.
Its staff is working remotely and it says it is in a strong financial position.
Looks like a potential winner here, even if there is another downwave.
It is surprisingly volatile and best picked up on weakness.
US share Zoom zoomed but then started to fall back which was picked
up by the stop loss and a nice profit banked.
The short in the AA has done so well that it is probably time to bank
some of the gains. After all at 16p even if it went bust I only have
another 16x profit to go and if it does go bust I would have to wait
some time for the payout.
So kept a small amount open but sold some live at the seminar yesterday
, well I mean bought them back so for the website it is a profit
of £6,325.
In real life shorting of the AA over the last three year has made me well over
£40,000.
My guess is many buyers of this never used stops so bought from 300p downwards
and never sold. Anyone who doesn't use stops would have seen
their portfolios decimated.
Those that did would have come out with much smaller falls and now
have cash pile to come back in.
Have a look at your favourite tipster/ BB writer or Twitter expert. Bet
they have hardly ever sold anything at a loss but only sold stuff at
a profit? Now figure out why you rate these guys.
Elsewhere some hopeful, bargains picked up last time have gone great
guns, Computacentre, Telecom Plus, Avon Rubber, Qinetic. I've stayed
with most of the shorts - they've done so well but might
stay there for another potential downwave.
In the future when grandchildren say: "Did you really use actual cash in those days?"
You'll say: "Ah my child you will never ever now the deep joy experienced when putting on
a jacket you haven't worn for a year and discovering a £10 note."
Furloughed Easyjet staff have turned to new careers as
Panic buyers for the lazy. They have called it "speedy hoarding"
As usual at the online spreadbet seminar I used my three fave accounts live:
IG which is great all round - this is a "refer a friend" link
so if you go via I suspect I get something! (It also does isas
and a normal dealing account and you can switch money say
from SB account to ISA)
>
If you are thinking of A ftse trade try
as their spread is the tightest at 0.8. Also very
pleased with execution - FTSE cos the cheapest spreads
there too. It also offers 2% interest on cash balances.
It is hard to find a firm that does prices on the very small companies but this company does:
SEMINAR LATEST
May 6th Online Zoom seminar! Venue: Your place! (April 15/23rd sold out)
If you want more than the book and see me do it live, come and spend a day with me and live markets online! (beginners and improvers welcome). If a beginner there is guaranteed no jargon! See trades from my own accounts, research, level 2, and finding great shares from scratch and tons more. While the virus prevents the usual hotel
seminars this seems a decent solution and having done an online follow
up one this week, it worked well! All you need is a computer at home to join in.
Max half of the number I can usually do so only first come first served for bookings. You can also express interest
in the next hotel one if you don't fancy virtual.
Mail me at robbiethetrader with "May seminar interested" and I'll send you details.
******
Trades made for my sipp are exclusively available on my
email service (this is the website stuff plus exclusive trades mailed
to you earlier on update days). For subscription details mail me
with "email interested"
PODCAST WITH DJ NAKED TRADER!
NEW :
The Naked Trader Radio Show number three!
>
The second show was here:
>
Lots of chat about shares, the markets, xmas
rally, psychology, and lots more.
The first show:
Stockopedia as ever is SO useful. It really
is a must have! And some fantastic talented writers/commentators too like Paul
Scott.
Brilliant stats on all shares, amazing stock screens and even
discussion boards that are actually sensible and not barmy
blokes having a go at each other as if they were pissed in
a pub. Or weird obsessives.
>
gets you a big discount
and 14 days free trial.
If you are thinking of A ftse trade try
as their spread is the tightest at 0.8. Also very
pleased with execution - FTSE cos the cheapest spreads
there too.
It is hard to find a firm that does prices on the very small companies but this company does:
Website to your email PLUS extra trades which do not make it to the
website (a bit higher risk)
If you'd like the website material sent to your mailbox so you
get everything before the site itself is updated every other Thursday
plus one or two exclusive extra higher risk trades not featured on the
site mail me at robbiethetrader with "email" in the
subject line and I will send you details on how to subscribe.
25% off Stockopedia sub and free trial
Stockopedia is indeed like a stock market encyclopaedia and a great place to scan for new shares to buy, check out fundamentals, discuss on a sensible bulletin board. Each share gets a ranking, you can use "guru" screens to find shares, there is even a stock screen loosely based on my criteria! There are strategies based on ideas from top investors.
There is lots more really fantastic material and I believe access should help investors and I now use it myself.
For your 25% discount off any sub (eg £56 discount off UK sub) and free 14 day trial you need this link:
>
EXTRA INCOME FROM HOME
When I left my full-time job to trade it really helped having another income: this I got from part-time selling energy and phone services to people and getting a cut of their use of their home services forever! I still get enough from it now to pay all my bills. I am a great believer in multiple incomes and this is a great one in my opinion as anyone could do it.
If you'd like a second part-time income click here
>
This will explain what you can expect to earn and how it all works. If you sign up there you'll be under my wing. Any questions just mail me and if you sign up please let me know.
****
Trade tables follow! Trades are current open and recently closed trades. Closed trades feature the closing price and the amount I won or lost. All others are open. Trades get updated a little later than the narrative. Trading costs are ignored, however I also do not add in dividend payments and with the kinds of companies I buy, dividends tend to equal or outweigh costs. Spread rollovers ignored for web purposes. Tables as accurate as poss however a mistake or two can creep in and very occasionally if I forgot I sold or bought something it will be added at a later time. Trades first reported in the diary under Markets every other Thursday afternoon.