A stink in the neighbourhood
January 9, 2020
NT podcasts:New:
PLUS:
>
And:
BEGINNER/IMPROVER SEMINAR: SPEND A DAY WITH ME AND LIVE MARKETS
NEW DATE MARCH 9th NEAR HEATHROW CLOSE TO AIRPORT
(Feb 7th date sold out)
If you want more than the book and see me do it live, come and spend a day with me and live markets. (beginners and improvers welcome). If a beginner there is guaranteed no jargon! See trades from my own accounts, research, level 2, and finding great shares from scratch and tons more. Three course lunch, snacks, drinks,lots of chocolate, banter and fun with me live all day.
**Best Financial Educational Provider, International Finance Awards.**
Mail me at robbiethetrader with "Mar seminar interested" and I'll send you details. Early bird discount available. (Feb 7 seminar is sold out)
New: Spreadbetting seminar MARCH 2
For those of you who have thought about spreadbetting but have been scared to do it, or did it and screwed up. The seminar would be about how to run sb accounts alongside your isas etc as extra tax free investments. You should already know how to
buy and sell shares normally to come. A SB firm will be there to take questions!
If interested, just mail with "sb interested" in the subject line.
Follow up seminar: March 23rd for those who have been before and
want a follow up day, more in depth, live trades and lots more
mail me with "follow up interested"
*****
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exclusive higher risk trade or two made for my sipp on update day , mail
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line and will send you details.
******
NAKED TRADER PODCAST 3 !
>
Lots of info on shares and trading plus competitions, music and fun
with your DJ NT.
Thanks for all the kind words on the new book Naked Trader 5 and glad you're enjoying it.
This discount code will work for 30pc off on the harriman house site
and that is NT5ROBBIE. Or Amazon has it! The audio version is out now! Go to and search for naked trader. Scroll down and make sure you download
edition 5, the one with me with a blue shirt on!
Welcome to a new decade! Did you miss me? No? I know, you've got
a very important and busy life so why should you? Shall we all start
the decade loving each other? Yes!! I love you even if you've decided
I'm a plonker and hate me. We all have our downsides and upsides.
Let's celebrate the up bits and forget about the down!
Can you believe the decade started without "smart phones". And now
you're considered weird if you don't have one. Call me weird then, see
if I care.
As usual just about adapting to the miserable UK weather after Xmas in
the Mid East. It's hard to get back after lovely sunshine, light, peace,
and great food. Lobster and crab rolls on the beach is hard to beat
on Xmas day...
With markets closed a lot I managed a lot of writing on one of my new
non finance books projects, indeed I did so well it is very nearly
finished! More news on that soon.
My floated idea of a spreadbetting only seminar seems to have attracted
some interest so I'm going to go for it, it will be on March 2nd. See up above
for details. 15 of you already booked in!
The February seminar is getting busy and could well sell out
in the next few days. If interested in either event mail me at robbiethetrader
STOP PRESS: FEB date sold out.
Thanks to those of you coming on Feb 7th who've already filled in your questionaires, they really help me to figure out where to pitch it and what we'll cover. Look
forwards to seeing you all for a good day and lots of naughty treats!
Good luck with any new year's resolutions. My suggestion would be not
to worry about what happened in the past or worry about the future, Enjoy
what is happening right now! Put your phone down and look at a bit of
nature.
Thank goodness next door have been given their marching orders. The house
is owned by the local church which uses it for its vicar for two years then
rents it out for a while for income.
We see people come and go. Our favourite was pop star Callum Beattie. Such
a nice guy and great singer to boot. But recently there's been no sign of anyone
except constant take away deliveries and the stink of cannabis.
Neighbourhood gossip is there are tranced out druggies sleeping in the
bathroom and kitchen hence the waft of drugs and the pizza boxes in
the garden. The church is trying to chuck them out. Hopefully they will
soon go forth and multiply somewhere else.
Who's taking part in Vegan January then? No, me neither. The half price
offer at Brasserie Blanc in January is just too good as is its Beef
stew. Go to a branch
and try it, total bargain - just £9 - crazy prize. I'm pretty much camped
in at BB every evening now !
As you can imagine, stores love veganism. They can charge more and
the ingredients cost less. The thing is though: what is in some of these
manufactured vegan products?
If you are going for a "meat free" vegan sausage roll here are the ingredients:
Water, wheat flour. reconsituted soya protein, palm oil, gluten, wheat
starch, preservative, sodium metabisulhite, rapeseed oil, methycellulose,
sulphur dioxide. What a delicious combination!
FYI let me just highlight palm oil there. Need I say more? But good luck anyway
to stores like Greggs for cashing in. What I don't understand is why, if you're vegan
you need to pretend you might be eating meat?
Unfortunately the Mrs has to go in for an operation next week - she's in
for a few days then some time for recovery at home. I'll be at the hospital a lot
and looking after her usual duties. So email replies might take longer
than normal please bear with me. I'm going to have to buy a ton of grapes.
I think I should be able to do the next update due 23rd Jan, but if it doesn't
appear it's because I didn't get the time - if that is the case will update as soon
as I can.
Great to meet so many lovely people at the last seminar.
Lots of different ages, races, faces and occupations.
From a journo writing a book on Fake News, to a builder, a kids
book author, a clutter clearer helper, a pilot, anyone and everyone!
Sounds from the feedback you all enjoyed the day, the Xmas lunch,
the mini breakfasts and we ran out of hot chocolate!
Caterina said: "Thanks for the comprehensive notes, no fluff just the way
I like my info. Thanks to you and Elizabeth for a fabulous day. Outside the
trading info the food was great, hot drinks on tap and the extra goodies you
surprised us with all day. That's the way to run a seminar!"
Thanks Caterina and the other kind comments. Good luck to all of you.
I was amazed to see nearly everyone still there as we were heading towards
8pm! Hope you enjoyed the "reward". It was great to meet some more
of you after and to sign some books.
I wish you all the very best at the start of your trading life (some of you). And
sounds like I might see some of you again at a follow up event in March
Of course it's nice to get comments just after but even better after a while. For example this from Chris:
The seminar well exceeded my expectations. I learnt a ton about trading, keeping it simple and it has given me the confidence to cut some positions. I reinvested the proceeds in a spread account and new isa and the results from using your process are exemplary!
Naked Rambling
Whatever your politics it is great that the stalemate has gone and we
can actually get on with thing
Obviously Boris J is a dodgy geezer, there is no doubt. But. let's give him
a chance. Let's see if the promises are delivered.
As a remainer myself I still think leaving will cause economic problems but happy to be pragmatic. Let's do it and make it the best leaving we can.
Who knows, maybe a few years down the line it might be seen as
the right thing.
Meanwhile Dominic Cummings who is painted as an evil villain looks like he is going to try
and shake things up. Well, why not?
One suspects the corridors of power are full of fairly dull people doing their time. Yes!
Bring in weidoes and nerds!
PMQ's was a revelation without that awful berk Berkoe. Back to its usual
time of half an hour (more than enough) - no shouting and braying, perfect.
How can it take so long to get a new Labour leader?
We have to hope Labour gets its act together sooner or later as democracy needs a
good opposition to flourish properly.
Somehow the hard left have got to be taken out, people aren't stupid and they know
hard left policies have never worked. Get rid of all the old 70s dinosaurs who haven't
come up with a new idea between them since 1975. It needs to modernise
and rebuild. I guess they'll end up with the respectable but not scintillating
Keir Starmer.
I don't know enough about politics to make much comment about Iran.
One presumes a long-term spat or war isn't good for either side. The real problem
is if Trump lets loose to take away the impeachment thing or he wants to
win the election, a war could be handy for that.
However things could get out of hand so we must all hope they do some tits for tat
and that's all.
Didn't seem to be any females among the millions of mourners for the James Bond
style villain. I wonder why?
I suspect the Queen will be using her death state a lot today at a certain couple.
Eeeek.
Mum, I quit the family firm! I'm going off to do my own thing.. But is it ok with
you if I keep the house you're paying for and could you carry on bunging me a load of
money for doing nothing just in case the new business doesn't take off?"
Bit annoying that granny only left me many millions."
Onto some TV then.
Dracula (***)
I only caught this by accident - I've never seen any Dracula before dismissing blood sucking vampires
as a bit tedious. But this all turns out to be quite fun. Not really scary as it's played for laughs.
It starts well but starts to sag once we hit episode three. It just got too long and a lot could
have been left in the editing room
but I'm a great fast forwards
editor. The voice of the chap playing Dracula bugged me, where I had I heard before then
I remembered. The Affair! It all started to well but it really fizzled out towards the end. Shame!
Dr Who (**)
I always try and come back to this with an open mind. But I still can't quite get it.
It's not dramatic, it's not comedy, it isn't scary and it's full of well-known actors. This one
seems to be some kind of James Bond spoof. But there's no jeapordy. We know the Doctor
won't get killed. Nor will her nemesis The Master. The battle between them seems pointless.
The knowing in jokes aren't funny. The monsters are boring. Surely Jeremy Corbyn dressed
as Santa Claus would have been a lot scarier. There are gaping plot holes everywhere. The
aliens can spot everything apart from people hiding badly behind a sofa? Anyhow sorry for
being an old misery guts. I'll try one more just in case.
Celebrity Who Wants To Be A Millionaire. (***). Great fun - each episode about
10 mins with good use of the FF button. Clarkson is brilliant pisstaking fun. But the
celebs? Talk about playing it too safe - and the lack of any knowledge at all or how to
play the format was shocking.
The Trial of Christine Keeler (****)
Now the BBC at its best, an excellent take on the Profumo Affair which looks pretty close
to the real events. I've also enjoyed reading up all about the politics of the time, quite
fascinating. I love seeing all those lovely old cars there was an even a Hillman Imp,
that was my first ever car. The things that happened in that!
Best line in this one: "Don't call it a todger or I will never have sex with you again."
Best line in 2019. Gogglebox's Mary while discussing the Night King from Game
of Thrones. "He looks like Jeff".
I have a feeling Jeff took her off his Xmas card list.
The awards. I've now realised that I am not an arty farty person and I just didn't like
most of the nominations. That movie The Irishman! Dare I say it, long winded load of
seen it all before gangster stuff with all those familiar faces. "Marriage Story" - terribly
over-acted load of hype. I didn't get past half way with the yawn inducing Roma.
Most worthy winner the brilliant "Succession" for goodness sake watch it from the start. The
other worthy winner Chernobyl. Excellent.
Nothing for the great Billions?
When you see the US flag being burned I wonder where they buy them?
Is there a shop that sells them? If so wouldn't they burn it down? US Flags for Sale:
free lighter with each purchase!
SEMINAR NEWS
MARCH 9 near Heathrow (Feb 7 date is sold out)
Email me for details at robbiethetrader with "March seminar interested". There
is a decent early bird discount on offer.
Beginners and improvers welcome. Come and spend the day with me, the markets and some lovely people - and of course, lunch, lots of sugary snacks.
My seminars are designed for beginners, dabblers and improvers and deals with everything from how to look for winners, how to research, spreadbetting, level 2 use how to time trades and short, how to use advfn properly and run your portfolio without having to spend money on systems and tipsters.. and tons more.
A lot of the day comes directly from the live markets and I show you many of the tricks I use to get good prices live. And there might even be the odd live trade or 2!
Some recent feedback:
He actually takes you candidly right into the mental process involved in his successful trading, making it a pretty amazing display, even showing his own investment accounts right there on the screen. This is a genuine coaching session in how to trade like him if you put in the graft. My advice therefore would be to sign up for this while he is still prepared to do it.'
When I signed up to your course my goal was to make 20% p.a., I've achieved that in less than six months. Your course was pretty much going to be my last attempt at trading, So once again thank you, it's by far the best money I've ever spent on trading education and probably on education full stop."
I felt we were in for a long day of numbers, PowerPoints and dry talk.
Instead, what we got was fascinating and enjoyable mix of punchy insights, merriment and wise-cracks, sharp wit, and to the point no nonsense advice. I sat down at 9:45am and didn't look at the time again until way after 8pm at which point I had to drag myself away."
I read your books and understood the words "" however I was missing that final nugget of knowledge "" actually seeing you valuate a company and make that buy/no buy decision live means I now get it."
LOTS OF LOVELY DISCOUNTS HERE!!!
See above for discount on NT 5
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***
25% off Stockopedia and free trial
Stockopedia is indeed like a stock market encyclopedia and a great place to scan for new shares to buy, check out fundamentals...there is even a stock screen loosely based on my criteria! You can try it for free too.
For your 25% discount off any sub (eg £56 discount off UK sub) and free 14 day trial you need this link:
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Level 2 through me it is only £462 for your first year including VAT!
This compares to £ 638.88 direct from advfn so this deal saves you £176.88!
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Just mail me at robbiethetrader if you'd like any of these with "advfn offers" in the subject line. Please note if you want to discontinue the sub you need to give a month's notice by post. L2 offer includes silver and bronze.
THIS SITE TO YOUR MAILBOX!
Website to your email PLUS extra trades which do not make it to the
website for my pension
If you'd like the website material sent to your mailbox so you
get everything before the site itself is updated every other Thursday
plus one or two exclusive extra higher risk trades not featured on the
site mail me at robbiethetrader with "email" in the
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MARKETS
EMAILS: I do beg you not to send me emails asking me for advice on a particular share. It isn't legal for me to give you individual advice and all I do is send you a mail saying that, which wastes a lot of my time and yours too.
****
COPYING TRADES: I can't stop you from copying a trade I made but remember the price may already be a lot higher than I paid indeed I hope it is as buying at good prices is what I do for a living. You may be buying at the top and could easily lose money. Also I can make terrible mistakes and have done in the past. I could also sell before you or before the share tanks. I may still be holding in a year when you sold at a loss. Always do your own research, don't jump in blindly. Market makers are very clever at knowing how to make you pay top dollar and then push you out at a loss. This site is about sensible investment and learning how to trade sensibly and is not a tipping site. Beware. Never push buy on anything till you've done proper research and got yourself a sensible price.
***
MARKETS
Goodness well a lot has happened since I last updated!
A massive Tory majority went down very well and markets had a great xmas rally and
then when all looked good and we were in for a brilliant January...
Donald Trump tweeted!
Markets have since had a minor panic.
Hard to know what to make of it. Likely is that it will end up a spat with bits of damage
on either side but nothing that will shake the world.
That's what markets currently make of it anyway.
I suppose it means tread a bit carefully.
As soon as the majority was in the bag I piled in with a massive Xmas rally spreadbets
which by year end showed profits of £30,000 plus. Last year the rally didn't work out and
I lost. But like the many years before it, the xmas rally paid for my sunny mid east trip,
business class seats and five star hotels, so my thanks. It could have been more, I didn't
get the top but stops got me out with that lovely profits.
The election win also meant I could have a lovely relaxing hols in the sun and see profits
roll in without doing anything at all bar an occasional look at the tiny £150 google chrome
laptop I took me with which does the job.
So I hardly had to anything which made it a great holiday. I don't know exactly but since the
last update, on paper anyhow, overall profits are over £200,000. Given I don't need anything like that to live, that would have been fine over a year. So over a couple of weeks? Wonderful!
What next though? One part of me is saying - sod it all! Bank everything tax free take the year off.
Stop looking at stupid made up numbers, get out there and do something else!
But the greedy part says: "You can do better than Robbie! Go on, keep going! Make
more!" I guess it's the usual good vs evil battle that goes on in us all.
As with everything (except with UK politics right now) there is a middle ground so I have taken
some profits but I will also carry on looking for opportunities. I also enjoy the detective
work.
Anyway enough pondering the future, no-one knows. What else have I been up to?
As well as the Xmas rally bet I also did a FTSE 250 one which worked nicely and out of
that one with a profit. Again I let stops take me out as it started to come back a bit.
I'll start with some buys then. I guess you're not interested in what I bought 4
weeks ago so I will concentrate only on the very newest trades.
With the last few weeks being really decent it's become
harder to find value in the ones that have gone up so I've turned my attention
to some turnaround stories. One possible turnaround in the news right now!
This very morning I bought some Finablr (FIN)
This one tanked after a hacking attack led it to take its Travelex services
off line for a while causing a massive scare. A load of shares were also sold
by shareholders,.
That obviously makes it risky on a "catch a falling knife" basis but it says
the outages won't have any material impact on results.
If we consider that to be true (!) then it looks like the massive fall in the
shares - nearly halved in quite a short time - could be a great time to tuck them
away.
However - if they kept on going down I would sell for a loss and maybe give it
one more attempt further down. It looks very cheap now if it is assumed there
is nothing else hiding in the accounts.
So on a "I know it is risky" basis even though it is a massive FTSE 250 company
I've stuck my neck out! I'd be looking for at least a return to the 150p area.
If the next statement shows decent figures, the shares would see a big bump up.
And fast.
I've bought some Zytronic (ZYT)
It again holds some risk and is totally different to Finablr on the basis it is right
at the bottom of a market cap I would look at, so it is the very smallest
type of co I would consider. And also because of that I would be wary of getting
too many.
The 9 pc dividend comes about from the share going down after the company said
it was worried about the very short term. (Sometimes a too big div is a red flag). If this share had a lot of debt I would
never have touched it but its last statement said it had £13m cash and no debt.
It says levels of enquiries for new projects are higher than last year so with "Brexit done" (!)
it could translate soon into a higher share price as its sensors sell more.
Shares are gradually rising and would have thought 300-320 not unreasonable target.
But definitely a risky turnaround story.
Defence shares have been doing very well - one that needs to play catch up is TP
Group (TPG).
This under the radar share could easily go up 30pc quickly when it goes over the
radar. It looks very cheap and already today and yesterday it's announced contracts.
It's been sitting around the 6.5-7.5 area for some time and deserves a re-rating sooner
than later. At its current lowly market cap it looks like a takeover target (Cohort?)
- certainly I would be eyeing this one up if I was a bigger similar company.
Of course guesswork and hope on my part but I intend to hold firmly for my
hoped for rerate!
Talking defence, Avon Rubber is the share that just keeps on giving and I couldn't resist another buy.
The shares have bounced (!) higher again as defence shares are getting a lift
for obvious reasons.
The future continues to look bright, I am already in profit by many thousands and currently
own about £90,000 worth plus. With original targets busted, could a move to 3000
be on the cards? There seems a lot of buying going on right now.
I realised recently I seem to get shorts right more of the time than longs! Maybe I should
forget longs and just short bad companies! I also haven't done much reporting
of my shorts here over the years because I know not many people short and there
isn't much interest.
However I have noticed a lot more interest so will cover my shorting more on the
website than I have done previously.
If you want to learn how to short, come to my first ever spreadbetting seminar on March 2.
See elsewhere for details.
I've shorted Trainline some more. It may take time but at some point this over rated ticket
seller will get derailed. Virgin's already announced it's going to get into the ticket
market. Its founders have got rid of shares at any chance they get. I really don't think
this one is going places,
I also shorted some more Card Factory (Card). That's paid off today after a
very poor trading statement. Badly written too. Blames the general election!
As I have said previously. It really just sells cheap tatt. It has to pay massive
rents and I don't think this company will still be here in 2 year's time. So
I shorted some more and think with its massive debt it is only a matter of when
it goes bust. Frankly anyone investing in this needs to be sent a "good luck"
card. An old fashioned business that will go under - people just don't send
cards much anymore.
A short in Restaurant (Rest).
Apart from the recently bought Wagamana which is
a decent chain (but did they pay too much?) the rest of the group is a dog's dinner
of mid range boil in the bag places.
Pop into the pot massive debt and some red flags and the resulting stew doesn't look
very tasty to me. I'm targetting a price going down to 120p.
And Superdry. (sdry) This looks like a short as well. I know it's supposed to be turning around
but for right now cool youths thinks its brand stinks (so says my teenager).
And the middle aged don't think an awful lot of it either. As a brand I can't see
what its target market is anymore. So a short it is.
Some profit taking. Htws had a brilliant run, it also reached target and more quickly
wasn't sure whether to bank of not and decided to bank half and keep the rest and I've taken part profits of £1,143 . But looks cheap still and might buy back on any weakness.
Sbiz had a very good run and taken profits of £503. Same comment to Network which went way
over target for a profit of £1,360.
The Uber short has accelerated away on the downside but time
to bank a nice profit of £2,800. And in similar style Lyft proved a lovely short with £8,400 banked.
All that leads to banked profit of £14,206.
Elsewhere absolutely massive rises recently for the portfolio came from various shares.
Biggest risers for me were Gan, Avon Rubber, Kape, Cohort , Solid State, Ramsdens and XP Power among others
which have all contributed to massive gains.
Holdings in most of these are all in real life between £50,000 and £150,000 worth.
That does mean of course if there is a market collapse I could lose it all again on paper.
However on most of these, stops have been raised so unless an overnight warning it
should now simply be a matter of how much profit will be made on each.
Let's all keep our fingers crossed that the nutjobs in charge of the US and Iran will stop
dangling their wrinkled old willies at each other.
Or is that actually the problem?
SEMINAR LATEST
Beginners/improvers Feb 7th - last few places left, come and
spend a day with me and do things live!
New: Spreadbetting Seminar March 2
For those of you who have thought about spreadbetting but have been scared to do it, or did it and screwed up. The seminar would be about how to run sb accounts alongside your isas etc as extra tax free investments, It would not be about day trading or forex. It would
cover how to treat SB as an isa, trade medium term ranges for extra income,
sensibly use margin, run the accounts, place trades, use for shorting
and occasionally using for index trades. Also presentation and questions from a
SB company.
If interested, just mail with "sb interested" in the subject line.
Follow up Seminar: Date TBC either Mar 9 or 23
Trades made for my sipp are exclusively available on my
email service (this is the website stuff plus exclusive trades mailed
to you earlier on update days). For subscription details mail me
with "email interested"
PODCAST WITH DJ NAKED TRADER!
NEW :
The Naked Trader Radio Show number three!
>
The second show was here:
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Lots of chat about shares, the markets, xmas
rally, psychology, and lots more.
The first show:
Stockopedia as ever is SO useful. It really
is a must have! And some fantastic talented writers/commentators too like Paul
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Brilliant stats on all shares, amazing stock screens and even
discussion boards that are actually sensible and not barmy
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Website to your email PLUS extra trades which do not make it to the
website (a bit higher risk)
If you'd like the website material sent to your mailbox so you
get everything before the site itself is updated every other Thursday
plus one or two exclusive extra higher risk trades not featured on the
site mail me at robbiethetrader with "email" in the
subject line and I will send you details on how to subscribe.
25% off Stockopedia sub and free trial
Stockopedia is indeed like a stock market encyclopaedia and a great place to scan for new shares to buy, check out fundamentals, discuss on a sensible bulletin board. Each share gets a ranking, you can use "guru" screens to find shares, there is even a stock screen loosely based on my criteria! There are strategies based on ideas from top investors.
There is lots more really fantastic material and I believe access should help investors and I now use it myself.
For your 25% discount off any sub (eg £56 discount off UK sub) and free 14 day trial you need this link:
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EXTRA INCOME FROM HOME
When I left my full-time job to trade it really helped having another income: this I got from part-time selling energy and phone services to people and getting a cut of their use of their home services forever! I still get enough from it now to pay all my bills. I am a great believer in multiple incomes and this is a great one in my opinion as anyone could do it.
If you'd like a second part-time income click here
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This will explain what you can expect to earn and how it all works. If you sign up there you'll be under my wing. Any questions just mail me and if you sign up please let me know.
****
Trade tables follow! Trades are current open and recently closed trades. Closed trades feature the closing price and the amount I won or lost. All others are open. Trades get updated a little later than the narrative. Trading costs are ignored, however I also do not add in dividend payments and with the kinds of companies I buy, dividends tend to equal or outweigh costs. Spread rollovers ignored for web purposes. Tables as accurate as poss however a mistake or two can creep in and very occasionally if I forgot I sold or bought something it will be added at a later time. Trades first reported in the diary under Markets every other Thursday afternoon.