NOVEMBER 2, 2011
Holiday blues
The all new edition of my book Naked Trader 3 is out now !!! And there is a special offer right here if you order it from this website..
The two benefits of the offer are:
1- You will get your copy first, next day delivery!!
2 - But second and most important the first 500 to order from this website only gets an exclusive
Naked Trader Chocolate Bar
Yes a very nice indeed (I can guarantee that!) NT choc bar comes with each order if you are in the lucky first 500 to order! And there are only a few bars left so get cracking!
So what are you waiting for order here or by clicking on the book on the right! Or on the link coming up in a mo..
It took me flipping ages to write this third edition... but I felt as the last one was written in 2007 it needed a total update and overhaul.
And since we had two bad markets, one in 2008 and one, well, er, around now there is much more in it on what to do in the event of down markets. All trade examples are of course are much more current, from the last year or so.
And of course markets change so I have learned a lot since 2007 and it is all in the new edition.
But lots of new strategies including my top 20, lots more mistakes to avoid, loads of new trader tales, cartoons and a bit of fun too.
Those who bought NT 2, there is plenty of new stuff in it for you and if you are a beginner, you can buy NT 3 without having to buy NT 2.
I hope you all enjoy it - and can tell I put a lot of effort into it and I really hope if it just stops one person from making the mistakes I did it will be worthwhile.
Indeed I hope the book is worth it even if you read about other people's stories, it is amazing how so many make exactly the same mistakes.
Anyhow if you buy it I hope you enjoy it!
So to get hold of the book first and that chance to win a Naked Trader chocolate Bar click here!
http://books.global-investor.com/books/818560.htm?ginPtrCode=10453
(Anyone who already pre-ordered it from here is also in the chocolate hunt!)
** My book about spreadbetting , you can order it here:
http://books.global-investor.com/books/401334.htm?ginPtrCode=10453
I was really looking forwards to the half term holidays in balmy Tenerife.
The seminar went on till quite late (usual for these days!), more on the seminar later and I collapsed into bed.
Saturday I felt groggy but then I always do after a seminar because after all I am talking for more than 12 hours and having questions fired at me all day and I have to concentrate hard.
So I didn't think much of it till the Sunday when I thought, hang on I don't usually feel THIS bad on the sunday after a seminar, a bit tired maybe but not feeling like this!
I ended up in bed on the Sunday. We were due to fly out in the early hours of Monday and I honestly thought I wasn't going to be able to make the holiday at all.
So somehow I managed to get on the plane and into the holiday destination hotel.
Sadly for me I saw most of the hotel...... from my hotel bed! I obviously picked up some nasty stomach bug and ended up feeling very poorly for most of the stay.
I had no energy and felt sick every time I ate. However I decided it would be over in a couple of days and I tried to brave it out.
Until in the middle of the night I felt really sick, collapsed on the bathroom floor, which stangely made me feel a little better but I couldn't move.
Next morning it was call the doctor time as I wasn't getting any better.
I was impressed with the Spanish healthcare though. Asked the hotel for a doctor. He was there in 20 minutes, and it cost 70 Euros. Fair enough.
Though I wasn't happy when he was giving me two painful injections in the bum.
He reckoned I nearly had gastrointeritis but something just a little less than that but still nasty.
Still the injections and medical treatment helped and though still feeling not so great for the rest of the trip I very gradually started to improve a bit.
Problem was all I could eat was anything dry so I ended up with a bit of chicken and some plain rice. Every night, that's when I could eat at all.
And I had booked a fantastic restaurant for my birthday and had to cancel it.
Yes. Really poor old me. The worst holiday ever, or one I never really had.
Of course there is nothing worse than being in a 5 star hotel when feeling really sick. All you want is to be at home. I just wanted a bit of dry toast from time to time and some tea. Getting this in the hotel was next to impossible.
Well at least Christopher had a whale of a time - he found other boys near his age to play football with.
Sheer heaven for him! And there was a great beach for him too. The family we went with had a great time as well.. they all did except me!
Just about by the end of the holiday I was getting better although could still only manage dried foods - and at least I could manage to get on the plane to get home.
And what a relief to get home... when you're feeling sick being able to get what you want when you want is amazing after a hotel.
Right now I'm a lot better through eating a bit gingerly still. So I'm hoping it's all over and it's great to feel better and you realise how important health is.
I'm obviously a bit behind with answering emails, bear with me and I will try and clear them by the weekend, I think one or two may have gone awol so if no reply from me by the weekend please resend.
Don't you hate the clocks going back? Dark at 4.30? It's worse with a young active lad, we can't go out and play football like we used to. I miss that already.
Still, we all look forwards to our trip to South Africa over Xmas.
Did I just say Xmas? Is it really honestly that time of the year AGAIN? How did it happen and why does time go by faster the older you get... it's so unfair.
This weekend Christopher, me and a six-year-old friend of his are off to watch Fulham Vs Spurs. Should be a good game!
And tomorrow night Fulham is live on Ch5 playing a Europe game so if he is good we might let him stay up and watch the first half.
In the meantime I need to get to the Sky Plus machine and delete the game where Zamora managed to miss an open goal. Christopher seems to enjoy watching that for some reason....
We have learned from the staff at Starbucks that Zamora often gets a coffee and cake (!?) a couple of hours before a game.
Christopher fancies nipping down to Starbucks before the game to see if he can meet his hero. I said I'd give it a go but also told him whatever you do don't say "Never mind about missing that open goal, we all make mistakes...."
A belated thanks to all of you who came to the seminar a couple of weeks ago, thanks for all the lovely feedback on it - because of illness it took me a while to reply to the feedback but I think I got back to you all now.
I believe you all have the notes which I emailed before I went away, if you didn't end up getting those please let me know. It was all a bit of a rush sending them out before leaving for Spain.
I was amazed to see how many of you stayed till late and I was very flattered by that - also feedback shows how many of you were "getting" level 2 and the order book.
And also glad many of you feel you now understand how the market works better after our session - I was glad to be able to place a lot of live trades on the order book to show you how it works in reality. I think it is so important to know this.
Glad many of you enjoyed the fish and chips lunch and the pizzas. And it looks like looking through my accounts and how I try and handle positions has helped too along with changing the stop losses on one of my spreadbet accounts which we did live. I do wish you all the best with your trading and hope the training will especially help in the current tricky markets.
If you missed the seminar as it got sold out the next one is not too far away, and the last one this year and it's on Nov 25th so you can now book that one - good news is there is a decent early bird discount on offer! But only just, claim your discount now as it is about to disappear.
For details on the new Nov 25th date , email me at robbiethetrader@aol.com with "November seminar interested" in the subject line.
Beginners and improvers welcome! Come and spend the day with me, the markets and some lovely people - and of course, lunch!
If you mail me I will then send you details and a full agenda of what is covered. Also more details below somewhere.
My seminars are designed for beginners, dabblers and improvers and deals with everything from how to look for winners, how to research, spreadbetting, level 2 use how to time trades and short, how to use advfn properly and run your portfolio without having to spend money on systems and tipsters.. and tons more.
A lot of the day comes directly from the live markets and I show you many of the tricks I use to get good prices live. And there might even be the odd live trade or 2!
**Follow Up Seminars**
One is be a follow up day with me, with mainly searching for ideas and all day level 2 and placing orders on the book - "follow up seminar". This is on Nov 18th.
The other is a Technical Analysis seminar with top trader Susan and myself - this is on Saturday Dec 3rd - this would give you a basic grounding in how she uses Technical Analysis for great entry and exit points. I've had plenty of good feedback from these sessions.
If interested in either please email me at robbiethetrader@aol.com with either "Follow up interested" "TA interested" or "both interested"
I get quite a few mails asking what magazines or news services I subscribe to etc. Well, hardly any!
However I do take (£8.99 a month though take the yearly option at 20% discount to that) a daily email which is my main source of news about such things as broker upgrades, main news items, analysis of stocks and markets, forthcoming company statements and events, stock recommendations and targets from the top brokers, what kind of earnings expected from companies and a whole heap more useful stuff.
I sometimes get ideas from this for companies to watch or monitor or even buy. And it's handy to get a summary of what the brokers are saying and looking at future earnings etc.
It usually arrives around 5ish every day.
I contacted the people that put it together and they offer a free 14 day trial of it to my readers - so you can cancel after 14 days if you don't feel it's useful enough.
Once you cut and paste this link into your browser, click "uk 14 days free trial" then I would go "yearly option" which gives a 20% discount making it just over £7 a month, as you can still cancel seems worth it. Hope you find it useful like I do. It's one of the few paid for news services that has really impressed.
http://bit.ly/eBPXuG
I do also get the Investors Chronicle delivered by the newsagent every Friday. It's always worth a read and brings to my attention things I may have missed.
An interesting email from a reader. The thrust of it was he was going to buy a share after doing a lot of research but then it went up 12% and he hadn't bought it yet. So he felt angry.
How does he stop/halt the feelings of anger?
Well, you have to take the emotion out of trading. Which isn't easy.
I suggested he should read this book.. by Jason Zweig
http://books.global-investor.com/books/256158.htm?ginPtrCode=10453
This is the one to read on psychology. Great read.
Fancy getting the naked trader updates direct into your inbox? And a bit before it gets updates on the net including news from my pension trades made from my SIPP?
All you have to do is take a phone or energy service from the Utility Discount Warehouse at www.utilitywarehouse.org.uk/fabdeal.
I get some commission and you get the service! On top of that you ought to make some amazing savings on your phone, broadband, or energy use or all! There's even an internet phone where you can make free calls from wi fi hotspots!
Prices are guaranteed lower than the top 6 suppliers but even better you can get huge discounts on your energy/phone bill if you shop at places like Marks and Spencers, Boots, Sainsburys and a whole load more. 5% of your spend comes directly off your billl. Many are saving a fortune from their energy bills.
So save a few quid, and get my stuff in your inbox! A win win? Mail me at robbiethetrader@aol.com with "mail service" in the subject line and I'll send you details.
Spreadbetting firm Tradefair Spreads has upped its offer exclusively to Naked Trader readers to a £100 credit. This offer is exclusive to me and not available anywhere else...
I've been using them for a few weeks to check that I'm happy with the service. As you know I don't take ads or allow referrals on the site unless it's a company I've used and I feel confident about.
What I like about it is it's easy to use, spreads are surprisingly tight on the smaller companies and interestingly an automated stop loss is applied to each trade - so beginners know what their max loss is from the outset.
Anyway they now offer a £100 credit as long as you deposit £100. You get the credit after you placed 5 trades (Terms and conditions apply)
If you'd like to apply for an account with Tradefair Spreads and get the freebie click this link:
http://www.tradefair.com/promo/spreads/nakedtrader100/
The number of emails to me is nearly reaching saturation point and I'm struggling! I'm getting 100s which is lovely in a way but killing me in another.
The main problem is the length of some of them, indeed some run to the length of novels, so, please, help save my eyes and please keep mails to under 150 words.. you can do it! It's close to the stage where I am going to have to say I will answer all mails but those over 200 words will get deleted. Keep them short and sweet, please!!
Also, it's possible the answer you seek from me is already in FAQ's. And do remember I can't discuss individual shares with you as it would be classified as investment advice which I'm not authorised to give.
Many of you enjoy the cheap advfn toplists bronze deal through me as do many of you with the cheap level 2. However many of you say you want a half-way house to include real-time share prices always on.
So I'm pleased to announce I've managed to seal a new deal with Advfn for its "Silver" service - that's always on real-time share prices for a good saving (Bronze toplists etc are included in this).
The deal is via me you can save £30 for your first year by paying just £138.06 inc vat via me instead of £167.47.
Just mail me for full details if you'd like it with "silver" in the subject line.
They've just re-published "The Zulu Principle" by Jim Slater who's written a 2008 update at the beginning.
This is a brilliant classic book. Reading this is a real pleasure and it was a great idea to republish.
Jim believes like I do the best gains can come from smaller stocks and in an easy to read style takes you through how to evaluate smaller companies that are about to become bigger ones - he uses some excellent examples.
Really this is a must read for all more longer-term investors or anyone looking to grow their money... a number of you have also written to me about this book and praising it.
Here is the link to buy it:
http://books.global-investor.com/books/167207.htm?ginPtrCode=10453
Here's a very topical one: The Little Book of Bull Moves in Bear Markets by Peter Schiff.
The book is all about how to keep portfolios up in a down market. He focusses a lot on how to play commodities and win with some sensible advice especially on natural resources and precious metals. He is very much a realist and there is no rubbish here: some straight talking and some interesting strategies.
Everyone who invests should think seriously about keeping portfolios up in bad times so this book should be read.
Well worth picking up at this link:
http://books.global-investor.com/books/271958.htm?ginPtrCode=10453
To order my new book Naked Trader 2 for next day delivery click this link... or the cover of the book top right!
http://books.global-investor.com/books/27120.htm?ginPtrCode=10453
Several people have asked me for a recommendation on a book which shows how to study accounts in a reasonably easy way. The one I like the most is http://books.global-investor.com/books/15717.htm?ginPtrCode=10453 by Robert Leach. Ten crunch questions to ask before buying any company.
It' s a decent easy-to-read book with several key chapters and it's highly recommended. It's one I keep and dip into from time to time. To order, click this link... http://books.global-investor.com/books/15717.htm?ginPtrCode=10453
The best book on charting and easiest read on the subject is http://books.global-investor.com/books/15618.htm?ginPtrCode=10453 by Alistair Blair. Click here -> http://books.global-investor.com/books/15618.htm?ginPtrCode=10453
Another good one is the second edition of http://books.global-investor.com/books/23792.htm?ginPtrCode=10453 by Peter Temple. Included in this one is how to use spreadbetting, CFD's warrants and trackers to reduce risk. And there are some decent trading strategies too.
This is an excellent book for new investors and also experienced ones. It explains all the things you may not be sure about in the markets and will explain the tools that are there. To order The Investors Toolbox by Peter Temple (new edition) click the following link for delivery in 24 hours... http://books.global-investor.com/books/23792.htm?ginPtrCode=10453
Naked Trader Seminar Latest News
***Sorry October Event Is Sold Out ***
Fancy spending a day with me, learning all the ways I have learned over the years to find good shares and play the markets? Well, you can at one of my seminars!
Booking is open for the Naked Trader seminar on Friday Nov 25th
Price is £550 plus vat. There is an early bookers discount currently available.
That includes three course lunch, coffees, snacks etc. There is an early bookers discount currently available.
The seminar is mainly aimed at beginners and dabblers though improvers are welcome too.
Topics covered using live market feeds all day include: Market psychology, level 2 - a simple guide to how to use it for better timing; how to value companies; finding companies that are about to rise. I will also cover techniques for handling events such as the recent meltdown and volatility.
Spreadbetting: How to use it to gain an edge and go short. Market makers - how they work and how to beat them; how to stop losing money and make it instead and plenty more.
How to plan trade entries and exits - how to research companies and understand reports, plus all those niggly questions you always wanted to ask. How to set stop losses and targets. Charts and how to use them.
Also covered: Market maker tricks: How to spot tree shakes and use them in your favour, How to tell when NOT to buy a share. I use live ADVFN all day with lots of level 2 and looks at all kind of live market data.
The idea behind the seminar is SIMPLICITY. I don't use jargon or fancy words - everything is in PLAIN ENGLISH! No question is too stupid and the event is held in a friendly relaxed and supportive environment.
The idea is you will come away from the event I hope a wise and better investor with lots of new ideas. I try and translate complex topics into easy bite size pieces. I also aim for it to be entertaining as well as instructive.
If you are interested please e-mail me at robbiethetrader@aol.com with "seminar interested" in the subject line and I will send you full details of the event including comments from those who have come to previous seminars and you can then decide whether you would like to come. See you there!
One seminar attendee Clare wanted to write a testimonial about her experiences at the seminar which follows now!
"I've just come back buzzing from one of Robbie's seminars. What a day! He's just brilliant, and manages to pack an awful lot into one day, and with his enthusiastic and humorous delivery the day just flies by. There are no gimmicks, no sell, no "˜get-rich-quick' promises, just his own solid, sound approach which he has learnt over the years and which works.
He shows you how to minimise the risks and maximise the profits and points out the banana skins on the way. Where the seminar really comes into its own is when he teaches using live level 2. Hearing him talk through his thought processes and reasoning is invaluable, and really brings home everything from the book. He has endless patience answering peoples' questions, and really seems to care that everybody understands.
On top of that, you meet some really nice like minded people and swap e mail addresses, you're plied with
chocolates and coffee all day, have a great lunch and spend the evening getting tiddled with Robbie in the
bar afterwards! You might even get to see the amazing crocodile boots . . . .
Don't worry about the cost, it's easily worth it, and you'll soon make it back with your new-found investment skills, and in what you're no longer losing. If you're thinking of going along to his next seminar, whether you're a novice or an experienced trader, don't hesitate ""just go!
Thanks Clare, did you want the tenner in cash, or will a cheque do?
£100 Tradefair offer
So there's now a £100 credit on offer for anyone opening an account via me. You get that after 5 spreadbets (terms and conditions apply)
To get the offer, click here:
http://www.tradefair.com/promo/spreads/nakedtrader100/
Naked Rambling
To not register for vat just shows how the high and mighty are no better than any of us.
What does it also show? How idiotic and complex our tax laws are and how those running small businesses have to spend hours and hours on tiny little complex rules instead of .. doing business..
I often wonder whether I can even be bothered running seminars simply because of the hours and hours it takes me to do the paperwork.
I have to charge everyone vat. Then I have to collect it all, add it up, check and re-check, then without any thanks for the hours I spend being a tax collector then pass it on. At the end of it I often think: was it all worth it? Goodness knows with some businesses.
For Cable not to even register for vat is simply amazing. How can he now lecture us on tax affairs if he can't get something so basic right? Personally, I would have fired him right away. Sorry Vince.
Vince highlights all that is wrong with our policians, they have no idea at all about business and the headaches it brings, mainly caused by red tape.
Time to shift the protestors I think, it's fair to let demos take place but they ought to demonstrate, get the headlines and then move on.
Ironically those of us who want the capitalist system are way too busy working to be able to think about getting a tent and sitting in it for weeks....
Without a capitalist system I am not sure where the protestors think they are going to get their daily Starbucks from....
Really sorry to read of the death of Jimmy Saville. A true British eccentric who was always himself.
Sadly in our homogonised society eccentricity appears to be frowned upon these days. Yet we need more characters like him not less.
But no, he would never make it on the radio now as identikit "personality" dj's talk the same old rubbish.
He seemed a genuine good sort and raised millions. it's a shame he didn't have a family as it would be interesting to see the progress of his sons or daughters.
Let us embrace those different from the norm and encourage individuality.
Downtown Abbey. I am only (just) hanging on in there. But I think if it wasn't for Mrs NT I would now be "out".
Too many daft plots, bad acting and no real rapport between the characters. And some awful cheese has been putting in an appearance. Shame as the first series was good. Maybe it'll improve when the war bits end. It hasn't got long.
Much better is the brilliant prohibition drama on Sky Atlantic, Boardwalk Boulevard. Always gripping throughout. See it from the start if you missed it. Nearly as good as the Sopranos.
Best ever episode of the Sopranos was just repeated. What a series.
And Curb remains in excellent form,, more 4 on Sunday nights.
The spreadbetting firm I use for sports betting is here:
Via this link Open a Sporting Index account and there's £100 cash offer - please check terms and conditions which apply.
http://www.sportingindex.com/?tpid=6755
Do remember if you do bet you ought to treat sports spreadbetting as entertainment - and expect to lose! Also with spreadbetting work out what your max loss could be and make sure you can afford it! In other words if you say backed the favourite at 15 for a fiver and they come nowhere your max loss is £75.
Naked Mail
Chris the builder from sunny Wigan here, fan from day 1, (well about day 323 but who's counting eh?)
Anyway....I feel the need to say THANK YOU again for staring at me via (the first book) on Waterstones bookshelf on that faithful Christmas weekend a few years back, then the seminar at posh Heathrow that i drove to in my van! Ha!
Patience is free, watched my portfolio turn to poo, then back into gold, bought another house with profits, ISA is crammed with good earners, and KENTZ? Need I say another word? Here's one... wow, and another, did I mention thank you Mr Burns
Thanks Chris, I remember you well! In fact I remember you giving me some "humble builder" type nonsense and so glad you've done well and I helped with the book and the seminar. One thing you picked up is the ability to hold onto the good winners for yers to get the real rewards.
I'm happy for you. Great thing about trading is it doesn't matter who you are, what you do, or how you perceive your "status". We are all equals in trading and that is just great.
Duane writes:
Wanted to say a big thank you to you and Mrs NT for an amazing day of learning and fun at your seminar.
The way you explained the share trading from start to finish was understandable and really interesting, well worth the seminar fee!
It was great to hear such down to earth and honest assessment from a successful trader like yourself. The way you explained everything was good revision from your book and gave further insight into successful share trading.
I particularly liked your live trades and going through your accounts when you gave snippets of why you invested in certain shares and why you kept/dumped them. Also helpful was the way you searched for prospective shares and within minutes discounted them or put them on a short list for further examination and correct entry points. Amazing!
You could really tell that you loved doing what you do and your energy levels to keep going till 10pm was well....... I had to leave at 9pm I was shattered!
Thanks again Robbie I am keen to put into practice what you have taught me. Even though you make squillions from your trades and I am sure don't need to do the seminars for financial gain, but please keep doing those seminars for newbies like me!
Thanks Duane! Don't expect to be doing them foreever but very rewarding for me to help people so expect to carry on for a while longer.
Malcolm writes:
A thousand thanks for the seminar, which I found both informative and inspiring. If I can keep my own psychology somewhere near balanced I can make steady money at this until I pop off.
I was particularly pleased to find your approach so simple. This chimes with Warren Buffet, who of course says,
'If calculus or algebra were required to be a great investor, I'd have to go back to delivering newspapers.'
It also confirms my own prejudice, and what my friends in the City have told me, namely, that the financial complexity is unnecessary, only there to bamboozle the unwitting public, and doesn't make it any easier for the City boys to make money. Hence nine out of ten funds haven't beaten the index in any four year period since 1914 (Motley Fool).
Thanks Malcolm. Glad to hear and hope you don't pop off just yet. I agree: simplicity is best and all the jargon tends to be just there to make the jargon talker sound important or that they know what they are talking about.
Terry writes:
Fantastic seminar.
I have always been sceptical of the public testaments you see on web sites
saying how great an event was. Now I'm one of those people!. I
genuinely believe that the tips and techniques as well as the overall
approach you demonstrated will radically improve my trading performance
Thanks Terry, well all the testaments are real but know what you mean and glad you feel it was worth it!
Stephen writes:
I read your book and did the course - and I wasn't sure if I'd recoup the cost, it's been 2 years and I've made £38k + saved a loss transferring a Jupiter ISA heavily invested in BP. I can't tell you how important this is or how grateful I am. That's just me, who knows how much people have made with your help and saved by not making mistakes. I wanted to get into shares as they recovered after the crunch, but I assumed I had to put a large amount in one company I thought would make a big jump.
But what happens when you make £1m on the website, will you still do courses? I don't know how you do your ISA and SIPP investments, write the website, books, courses and answer e-mails. But please don't give it up. Couldn't you do the courses and have a standing website which gets updated with your trades say once a month so people can see what you do..
Stephen thanks so much for such a nice mail and much appreciated! Dunno about the future, I feel like I'm getting jaded. It's possible I might just reduce it all at some point to twice a month after going weekly - that would probably help. The other problem is other people's angst is getting to me and the email workload becoming overwhelming. I think after ten years it might be time for me to quit. Anyway good luck with your trades and hope you make a lot more.
I have 3 great offers from ADVFN.
ADVFN level 2 offer
First great deal: If you want level 2, though me it is only £305 for your first year including VAT!
This compares to £432 direct from advfn so this deal saves you over £120! ADVFN level 2 also includes all the live trades made through Plus Markets which I find invaluable.
To accept this great deal just e-mail me at robbiethetrader@aol.com with "Level 2 offer" in the subject line and I will tell you how to get it. Level 2 gives you access to all the market maker positions and the order book and I would not trade without it! More on level 2 in my book and I spend hours on it at my seminars.
ADVFN Bronze Offer
To take up the offer, e-mail me at robbiethetrader@aol.com with Bronze in the subject line and I will tell you how to claim the deal.
Bronze is included inside the level 2 deal.
Advfn Silver Exclusive Offer
The deal is via me you can save nearly £30 for your first year by paying just £141 inc vat via me instead of £169.20.
Just mail me at robbiethetrader@aol.com if you'd like this deal with "silver" in the subject line.
Selftrade Offer
All online deals are just £12.50 with no funny small print. Charges for phone deals are higher, check terms and conditions. They also charge £35 plus vat pa for all accounts. Follow this link...
http://tinyurl.com/57hp4n
Markets
Goodness, well they were pretty good while I was away in Spain.. And then when I get back they turn nasty again. Come on, its going to be something to do with Greece. Am I right?
Who'd have thought just a few months ago that one small country would cause shares to rocket up and down.
I could hardly believe my ears when I heard the word "referendum", surely that won't happen and in any event how on earth can they afford the cost of one?
They seem to be totally bonkers right now, I'm half Greek and honestly I'm feeling ashamed of them. Sorry. But what the hell are they playing at? They just can't expect to retire years earlier than anywhere else and not pay their taxes.
I suspect it will get sorted out, it has to be but until it is it looks like the volatility is back which makes it nearly impossible to trade sensibly. Market is heading back up today but with so many meetings ahead of us how the hell can one possibly tell what will happen next?
Here are some comments on the Greek situation from market commentator David Buik:
"I have George Papandreou, Greece's PM on my pad as perceived to be 'brain dead', mad, duplicitous, disingenuous or untrustworthy - probably the whole lot rolled in to one! Strong language, you might think, but the EU, the UK, the US, China and others have put themselves out on a limb to bail-out this bankrupt nation against many peoples' better judgement. Greece has zero chance of being able to service its debt let alone repay it in the short time subscribed. They have yet to sell meaningful assets and many people in Greece cannot spell tax, despite having one syllable. We can all see the deprivation on the streets of Athens as a result of the austerity measures, but its governments are surely culpable for their economic incompetence - in other words they only have themselves. It is hard to see Papandreou winning the debate. He needs to govern, not ask permission!
If, by calling for a referendum on the bail-out or perhaps I should say offering or granting one, he thinks that he can gain more leverage or manoeuvre the EU politicians, I think he deludes himself - or at least I hope so. The whole of the EU is now again in turmoil. Recently regained confidence has been trashed out of existence. The G20 summit in Cannes now looks as if it will be a total waste of time. The ESFS fund and the recapitalisation of the banks now reverts to the 'back burner' and Papandreou's folly will dominate proceedings. Chancellor Merkel and President Sarkozy have put the EU ahead of their respective political careers and all they get in return is contempt!
If this referendum goes to hell and a high place, I hope Greece is thrown to the dogs! The banks have lost billions, having been forced to take a hair-cut ; so has the EU - just for the sake of George Papandreou's selfish political expediency and his silvery tongued exemplary English. Butter wouldn't melt in his mouth! Even Greece's opposition parties realise that Papandreou is playing political 'Russian Roulette' with its EU membership. Maybe Papandreou has more vision and foresight than we give him credit for! Me! I think he's barking!"
I took my laptop with me on holiday but while in Tenerife and being so sick for days trading was one of the last things on my mind. Staying alive seemed rather more important, see my diary above somewhere for the full nasty details of a horrible sick couple of weeks for me.
The MF Global debacle has affected me, well not in a too worried sort of way but...
Unfortunately for me I had some spreadbets with MF Global. Luckily for me I stopped using them except very occasionally about 2-3 years ago when I noticed they were messing me around with sudden really wide spreads coming back to me when I wanted to take a profit on something. I
I thought it was obvious they weren't hedging and therefore wanted to make it as hard as possible for me to make any money. Up to then I'd been happy with them but I smelt a rat and immediately stopped any promotion for them.
In fact several times at seminars live I showed how I thought they were manipulating spreads against me while IG and Tradefair were being honourable in my opinion.
However I still had a few smaller longer-term spreadbets in there and I just left them to run. They were gradually collecting money and I hardly ever even bothered looking at the account.
On getting back from Spain I saw a newsflash on Sky about MF Global then remembered the account, doh!
A few minutes later I got a mail saying they were stopping their spreadbetting arm, leverage was no longer available etc. Then the bankrupcy news in the states.
I had roughly £65,000 with them in cash and shares. I immediately called to withdraw £20,000 floating in the account in cash and was surprised to get through rightaway and equally surprised when the money reached my account mid afternoon.
Then I thought why take a risk, I closed out all positions mid afternoon which was okay as they were in the main topups of stuff I have already. So taking profits on these was fine in any event.
I phoned and asked for the account to be closed and the remaining £45,000 to be credited to my account.
"That's fine doing it now," said the lady.
No money appeared yesterday so I called up. I had a chat with a guy who said it was a shame I hadn't asked for the lot when I asked for the 20k earlier but there was a "chance" it would reach my account later that day. It didn't and still hasn't arrived.
He said it was definite that all UK spreadbetting client money was segregated so it would be no problem getting the money but he said administrators were crawling all over the place. He confirmed my money was segregated and insisted I'd get it, but it "might take a few days".
He said as a backstop I'd be entitled to the lot back as it was under £85,000 which luckily it is under the financial compensation scheme;..
So I'm certain I'll get the money and lucky me I'm not bothered how long it takes as it wasn't earmarked for anything.
I tried calling again today but the answerphone was on so right now I'm pretty certain I will get the money, but no idea when or whether I'll have to claim it eventually.
However though I don't think I'll end up losing it there are some lessons to be learned here!
One thing must be always ensure you never have more than £85,000 parked with a spreadbet firm or CFD provider, I would ensure if you have more than that to spread it out amongst different SB firms just to be on the safe side, as least you know your money will come back to you.
If I had had say £300,000 with MF I would now be very worried.
I do have well over half a million parked with Barclays but I feel okay about this because if Barclays goes down I suspect money will be valueless anyway and we will be fighting each other in the streets. And watch it, I've got a good right hook!
Probably the biggest lesson to the MF debacle for those of you with spreadbet and cfd accounts.
It is a reminder that at any time your provider can simply email you and say: "Sorry we are offering no more leverage/credit, please mail us cash right now or we will close out your positions."
Leverage by the way simply means credit. Say you have 10 grand deposited with a spreadbet firm, in a lot of cases they might give you access to 50-100 grand worth of shares.
What happens is people get greedy and start using the credit. They suddenly have 90 grands worth of sharesa and say only 15k in the bank to cover it.
What happens if the market melts down or the firm tells you no more credit? You only have 15k to cover 90 grand.
I have heard and met people over the years who lost everything they had doing this. Do not be a casualty of leverage because you got greedy.
So repeat after me, especially with spreadbet firms or anything that gives you leverage.
Only play with money you can afford to lose and do not ever use more leverage than you can handle.
I personally could right now go in and buy 3 million quids worth of shares on leverage. Am I tempted? Not in the slightest.
What do I add to the stock market in cash terms. Just my 10k isa allowance each year. That's it.
I do not want to give back the great profits I have made over the years. Spreadbet profits go in the bank after they have built up. I use ISA money for big ticket items though in the main I try and run it like a pension.
Greed=Avoid. Debt=Avoid. Leverage=avoid. Don't have more than £85,000 with any one firm unless it is a really big bank like Barclays.
End of my boring old fart lecture. And I'll let you know when the money eventually arrives and whether it gets here quickly or whether I have to make a compensation claim. I have also written to this mail address which apparently is dealing with queries:mfglobalenquiries@kpmg.co.uk.
So if you have an MF Global account lodge a claim there, they are the administrators.
Phew, right onto trades, partly because of my illness and partly because the current market is bonkers I haven't done much and, well, still hanging onto a lot of cash for now till the dust settles.
But I've been sitting and waiting to buy Bayfield Energy (BEH) for some time since it got listed. It's an oiler which is impossible to value and instead of trying to value it I simply took a risk with it and bought on the strong management team.
I know this management team very well - it made me one of my biggest wins ever when I banked nearly £40,000 on Burren Energy which I bought at 200 ish and which eventually was bid for at 1200ish.
This same team is behind Bayfield. And even better just a few days ago two directors bought shedloads of shares which fills me with some confidence and I think the risk reward ratio looks good. Of course one has to realise it is an oiler and one bad report and it could halve, however it could also double and treble from here and with the director buying and other good volume coming in I feel this one worth the gamble. It might take some patience too.
As it is AIM share to avoid any tax liability I bought on a spreadbet at £100 a point at 54. Which means the most I could lose if it went bust was £5,400.
I also bought back into Exillon (EXI) for a tenner at 248. This play does keep producing very bullish statements so I've tentatively picked up a small amount.
On Sunday I noted a story in the Sunday Times about Homeserve (HSV) which the paper said would plunge on Monday because of misselling.
I read the report from the company early doors on Monday and through the story wasn't great news my thoughts were a 20% markdown. I was shocked to see a near 50% markdown and bought as soon as I could, couldn't manage to get any at the low but I got 1,000 at 269.26.
My guess is the overshoot on the downside was probably caused by automatic stop loss selling. The shares went into auction so I also picked some up on the spreads at 306. I think they will head back up to the 400 level and I think in the end it'll be a storm in a teacup. They're around 340 now so already in good profit. I guess I'm aware I shouldn't be greedy but the company has addressed the issue well and seems to be in control so for now, I hold. At 400 I'd probably bank. I'll probably shift a stop loss up under the price to ensure I get a profit out of it.
Gamble Filtronic's (FTC) shares on the order book didn't look good and they looked like they would fall below 20 so I got out at just over 20p for a loss of £440. However a few days later they fell further and so I took a chance and picked some up, 15,000 at 16.2p. Nothing much will happen with them this year but management thinks next year could be a change of fortune. On the risky side so small stakes only.
Finally you may think I'm crazy given I already have tons of this share but I couldn't resist a top up in Kentz (KENZ) on a dip yesterday and picked up another fiver on a spreadbet at 465. It remains a big hope for me. Doubled on the initial spreadbets I still hold and up on the two recent top ups. With its massive cash balance there seems little downside and plenty of upside potential. They are now in the FTSE 250, so it tends to drift if that index drifts but looking ahead a couple of years I think it will get bought out at a much higher price. It did actually hit 500p at one point, I suspect it will get back there once the market settles.
Portfolio highlights:
The portfolio has risen a bit since I last updated despite this week's shocks.
I'd first like to sing the praises of a share that I've held for a long time and have topped up on over time. Generally it just goes up, it generates tons of cash and the dividend yield is terrific.
I'm up on it by more than £20 grand. And then the dividends on top. Yesterday it announced yet another special dividend this time of 5p which it pays next week. I'm talking about Microgen (MCGN). It's a simply terrific company that keeps generating tons of cash, it has £25m net cash and profits are up too.
The special dividend next week shows how confident the management is despite economic uncertainty of the moment. I suspect someone will snap up this company at some stage and it could go for a very tasty premium, perhaps even 250p.
Coastal Energy continues to come up with success stories and up over £2,500 on these now. Between updates though they tend to drift if the market does but I hope to hold longer term.
Eros has been a big star and has risen fast in the last couple of weeks yielding profit of £1,000 and already reaching and beating my target. However as I like holding onto winners I've held on here for what looks like more to come. 260 now is where it needs to break through and over the last 2 weeks there have been two encouraging statements.
Bid target Entertainment One sits around 200p and us holders are still waiting and wondering if a bid will happen, maybe it will take a lot longer than I thought. It will be a bit disappointing if it isn't but then again the company looks worth 180-190p without one and I've still doubled my money on it regardless.
Telecom Plus continues to be a shining star. I suspect it will buzz around 7 quid till the next re-rating but in the meantime happy to have the whopping dividends and it remains a fabulous long-term play Total profits here are well in excess of £50,000 and way more than that personally - plus all those lovely dividends. I would think these would be trading at a tenner within about a year.
My long-term drugs hold BTG Group keeps coming up with promising statements with revenues well ahead of expectations, probably one to hold onto for at least another couple of years and a nice doubler.
I keep wondering whether to bank the rest of the Ocado short as there is a profit there of more nearly £4,000 It doesn't go up much with the main market but wonder if I am being too greedy expecting any further falls. It seems to have support at 90p. For the moment still short.
Avon Rubber does get affected a bit by the main market and can't head over 300p.
CML has risen a bit but finds 220 a bit of a struggle.
The long-term Petrofac trade still holds good, was vaguely tempted to top up. Some bid rumours floating about.
In general I'm in a holding pattern just waiting for things to settle down before making too many trades. There should never be any "rush" to make a trade just to make one.
I'm always happy to sit and wait it out and in the meantime the portfolio goes well.
I've been getting e-mails regarding my use of direct market access and who I use. I've tried a few and for me the easiest system for me is here:
http://www.igmarkets.co.uk/?QPID=1079&QPPID=1
Direct market access means you can place orders directly onto the order book bypassing brokers and market-makers with a chance to buy at the "sell" price. I would suggest you ensure you know what you're doing first but IG does provide much education with its "tradesense" educational tool which comes with it.
I also use its spreadbetting service too along with other firms like Tradefair because it now provides trailing stops which to me is a pretty sensible way of trading. Link is here: -
http://www.igindex.co.uk/?QPID=1078&QPPID=1
that also includes a pretty decent educational programme. As usual before opening accounts please read all the warnings on the sites. You can lose a lot of money if you're not careful so pay close attention to them and make sure you always understand what you are doing and what your potential losses are.
£100 Tradefair offer
So there's now a £100 credit on offer for anyone opening an account via me. You get that after 5 spreadbets (terms and conditions apply).
To get the offer, click here:
http://www.tradefair.com/promo/spreads/nakedtrader100/
E-mail subscription service
Telecom Plus Offer
You get to sell great broadband, phone packages and energy to friends, relatives, contacts and anyone else you find and you get cash for each sale but more importantly you get a cut of their spend EVERY MONTH for as long as they are a customer!
It's called residual income and is a far better way to enjoy a ripe old age than relying on a pension. Because even after you stop selling the money STILL comes in!
I still get paid EVERY MONTH for sales I made back in 1999! Every time a customer uses broadband or the phone or switches on a light you get paid.
It's a great business and backed by a stock market company (Telecom Plus), a dedicated team of advisors.. and me to help you on your way!
Not only do you get paid out every month for each customer you can take on distributors. encourage them like I do and get paid on their sales as well.
One day, say you could made redundant, needed a year off or wanted to retire early can you imagine what joy it is to have the regular income coming in. It's wonderful.
You have to work at it, but if you do genuine repeat wealth could be yours. I did it. You can too. For full details, why not email me at robbiethetrader@aol.com.
An overview is also available at http://www.telecomplus.org.uk/fabdeal you can sign up directly there but do tell me!
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Trade tables follow! Trades are current open and recently closed trades. Closed trades feature the closing price and the amount I won or lost. All others are open. Trades get updated a little later than the narrative. Trading costs are ignored, however I also do not add in dividend payments and with the kinds of companies I buy, dividends tend to equal or outweigh costs. Spread rollovers ignored for web purposes. Tables as accurate as poss however a mistake or two can creep in and very occasionally if I forgot I sold or bought something it will be added at a later time.
Trades first reported Wednesday afternoons under "Markets" section..