OCTOBER 16, 2018
Coffee heaven at seminar
BEGINNER/IMPROVER SEMINAR: SPEND A DAY WITH ME AND LIVE MARKETS
NEW DATE DEC 3rd
Near Heathrow Close To Airport
If you want more than the book and see me do it live, come and spend a day with me and live markets. (beginners and improvers welcome). If a beginner there is guaranteed no jargon!
See trades from my own accounts, research, level 2, and finding great shares from scratch and tons more. Three course lunch, snacks, drinks,lots of chocolate, banter and fun with me live all day. And a good look at Santa rally!
**Best Financial Educational Provider, International Finance Awards.**
Mail me at robbiethetrader@aol.com with " Dec seminar interested" and I'll send you details. There is a massive decent early bird discount.
Follow up: Dec 10 You must have been to a seminar before
to qualify for this day of live trading, research, supply and demand
and a whole lot more. Mail me with "Follow up interested".
I've met so many of you in the last couple of weeks
and I hate to sound smarmy but an absolute
pleasure.
Great to see so many returners to the follow up last week.
A really interesting day, lots of fantastic ideas discussed and
for the first time, many shorts discussed.
More later, and a big "hi" to those of you coming to the
seminar yesterday. Such a lovely group including Alex
who set up coffee company Rawbean.
I did taste a lot of it yesterday and it has my seal of
approval. Try the coffee bags!
As usual, a varied group of people all determined to
be a success in their field. It was great to meet you
and enjoyed a few chats at the end.
I hope you all make a success of it and will see some
of you again soon. Well done to one person who I know
sold some bad uns! And I think some of you were
making sense of level 2, take your time with it at home.
Glad the mini full breakfasts went down well, I actually
had three!
I've got new seminar dates now.
For beginners and
improvers it is Dec 3rd - a very large early
bird discount on offer!
And for the follow up for those
that have been, Dec 10th. The Xmas rally will
feature in depth at both!
Mail me at robbiethetrader@aol.com
for details with "dec seminar interested" or
"follow up interested" in the subject line.
Half-term starts this weekend. We get our
son back for a whole two weeks!
I'm taking
him to Cardiff for the away game Vs Fulham on Saturday and
in the second week we are off to Ireland and we
celebrate my birthday.
Being away in the week I'd normally update means the
next update will be the next week - so Nov 1.
My son dragged me to Everton away. (I'm not one to moan
but.. £200 all in for trains and tickets. Why couldn't he
have a cheaper hobby like hanging round outside the
chip shop? But given he's being really good about weekly
boarding it seems fair to indulge his hobby.
Over two hours on the train and we were in Liverpool.
Cab from the station and we were soon at Everton.
And it was nothing like you'd think from TV. Really nice
old fashioned ground. Lovely warm people.
As usual on an away game you're forced to stand. Even
though it gives everyone a worse view. I had an obese
woman with massive hair in front of me so I could only
see half of what was happening.
No idea why away fans stand. Is it to show you're really
hard?
Anyhow made no difference seeing half as We got thrashed 3-0.
Afterwards it was 90 mins till the train so we wandered over
to see the Liverpool FC ground!
The cab driver advised us that locals watched Everton
and fans from across the country watched Liverpool.
I never realised exactly how close both grounds were.
Literally we walked out of Everton, through a park and
there was Liverpool FC.
You can stand in the park or on the high road and easily
see both grounds at the same time.
While Everton is a real old fashioned ground, Liverpool
is way "grander".
It's got a museum, a large cafe with the games showing
- we were invited into the cafe to watch! - and a Hillsborough
memorial area.
You do feel a sense of history walking around. There;s a
little pub right there which I guess must be listed.
The park that separates the two is really nice! With lakes
and all and we picked up a couple of decent Mr Whippys
and got a bemused Japanese couple to take a pic of
us waving a Fulham flag, My son wanted that, obvs.
I kind of expected the area to be run down as I'd seen part of
a documentary on Everton a while back but it was all fine.
Clean and the park well cared for, However. I was told if
you visit either ground by car you have to pay a kid
around a fiver to ensure the car is "looked after"...
Ie, a fiver mate if you want your windows to remain
intact...
Well, it is Cardiff on Saturday. Not so bad, two
hours on the train.
I try and be kind to people whether personally or email. I think
I usually manage it! Be treated how you'd like others to treat you
is a nice mantra.
Anyhow we went to get some bread late in the day from the
local "We know you live in a wealthy area so this is going to
cost you" bakery.
The lady behind the counter was busy counting change for
the days' takings. I know what that's like having done it
myself when I owned a cafe.
One bit of someone disturbing you and you lose the plot with it!
So I waited very patiently! She eventually said thanks! I then
joked "Don't forget about my normal 20pc discount"
(I knew that bread would soon be chucked away) but I really
was only joking.
She said "I can't." I said "Drat I was being too greedy I should
have said 10 pc."
And she then said. "I mean, this is on the house!". And she
took my wife's loyalty card and bunged 8 stamps on it.
Wasn't that nice? Let's all be nicer to each other! It happens
less and less though with the advent of mobiles as we
simply ignore each other now.
Thanks to you all for feedback on the events and I know some of you
are already happily following the rules.
It seems self-obsessed to print all the feedback but why not
just one from Paul...
"Thanks for a brilliant day. It provided much needed focus
which was refreshing and enjoyable. The venue was
great, food excellent and I would highly recommend
the seminars to others."
Thanks Paul.
Naked Rambling
defended Diane Abbott. Abbott has a right to say whatever
she wants without being hounded. So does everyone.
It's a shame everyone just can't get together and do the best
for the country instead of fighting tribal politics.
Jezza Corbyn has some decent ideas - but sadly it's all
about hurting the wealthier people more than anything else.
We shouldn't try and hurt any group of people.
I suppose there are some good things to come out of
millennials and the addiction to mobile computers, oops
I mean "phones".
That is a third of under 25s now drink no alcohol.
Part of the reason is people after jobs don't want to be
seen drunk on social media. Of course potential
employees now screen social media to get a more
accurate depiction of someone.
The bad side I saw in Sainsburys. Literally no-one under
25 can use a till with someone ready to do it all for them,.
There was a queue for the self-service tills! Empty manned
tills. Crazy. Under 25s simply don't want to talk to anyone.
That is what new media is doing to them.
Great for oldies like me. I get my shopping sorted quickly,
packed a little conversation too. Lovely ! But for how
much longer?
Netflix want to let us decide how a particular story
should end.
No! I don't want to decide then I know what the ending is.
I must admit I would have liked to change the ending
to Bodyguard.
When Bodyguard, wife and kids head off in the car
in the last bit all happy how's about a car bomb
goes off blasting them all to pieces? (Thanks
for wasting 6 hours of my life, you b
)
Finished seeing Killing Eve. No spoilers if you haven't
seen it all yet, except the last two a bit disappointing.
But, the performance of Jodie Comer as the psychotic
killer was simply sensational! She carried the whole
thing. So believably mad.
It's definitely worth carrying on to the end if you are still
watching.
Trust, the story of the kidnapping of Jean Paul Getty 3
continues to be fantastic. Lovely filmwork and super
acting all round.
However series of the week has to be Succession. if you're
part of a dysfunctional family (let's face it most of us are)
you may feel happy that yours cannot be as bad as this.
The finale is a masterpiece. It's on box sets if yo
haven't seen it yet.
Better Call Saul continues its merry way on Netflix.
Lovely slow build ups and super camera work
makes it a joy.
It's also fun to start catching up with events
just pre Breaking Bad.
The Apprentice is back and as terrible and terrifying as
ever. How do they find those contestants?
Lord Sir A looks a bit tired of it all and his scriptwriter
is definitely tired with some awful hackneyed old lines.
Still it's the one show we can watch with our new
teenager who seems to enjoy it.
He, and we can't believe anyone really ordered any
of those awful kids comics. The orders can't be
real, just made up for TV surely..
The shops have already started Xmas. Yes, Xmas
goods are already appearing! Thank goodness I'll
be somewhere sunny miles away over that tedious period.
Worse though has to be Sainsburys. In September. "Halloween"
plastered all over the entrance.
I mean honestly. How much can they really make from selling
extra sweets?
Talking Halloween the Budget was moved two days just
so it wasn't on the 31st.
You can understand it, as will avoid headlines like
"Budget Horror Show". "Zombie chancellor delivers
terror Budget".
I gather a couple has got married and a woman has
got pregnant? Seems to be all over the papers. I can
barely contain my excitement.
SEMINAR NEWS
New date Dec 3 near Heathrow
Email me for details at robbiethetrader@aol.com with "Dec seminar interested". There is a large early bookers discount.
Beginners and improvers welcome. Come and spend the day with me, the markets and some lovely people - and of course, lunch, lots of sugary snacks.
My seminars are designed for beginners, dabblers and improvers and deals with everything from how to look for winners, how to research, spreadbetting, level 2 use how to time trades and short, how to use advfn properly and run your portfolio without having to spend money on systems and tipsters.. and tons more.
A lot of the day comes directly from the live markets and I show you many of the tricks I use to get good prices live. And there might even be the odd live trade or 2!
Some recent feedback:
He actually takes you candidly right into the mental process involved in his successful trading, making it a pretty amazing display, even showing his own investment accounts right there on the screen. This is a genuine coaching session in how to trade like him if you put in the graft. My advice therefore would be to sign up for this while he is still prepared to do it.'
"When I signed up to your course my goal was to make 20% p.a., I've achieved that in less than six months. Your course was pretty much going to be my last attempt at trading, So once again thank you, it's by far the best money I've ever spent on trading education and probably on education full stop."
" I felt we were in for a long day of numbers, PowerPoints and dry talk.
Instead, what we got was fascinating and enjoyable mix of punchy insights, merriment and wise-cracks, sharp wit, and to the point no nonsense advice. I sat down at 9:45am and didn't look at the time again until way after 8pm at which point I had to drag myself away."
"I read your books and understood the words "" however I was missing that final nugget of knowledge "" actually seeing you valuate a company and make that buy/no buy decision live means I now get it."
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Stockopedia is indeed like a stock market encyclopedia and a great place to scan for new shares to buy, check out fundamentals...there is even a stock screen loosely based on my criteria! You can try it for free too.
For your 25% discount off any sub (eg £56 discount off UK sub) and free 14 day trial you need this link:
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ADVFN offers
This compares to £ 638.88 direct from advfn so this deal saves you £176.88!
Level 2 gives you access to all the market maker positions and the order book and I would not trade without it! More on level 2 in my book and I spend hours on it at my seminars.
ADVFN's bronze subscription - normally £97.53 pa - available from me for only £66! (inc vat) That's a saving of £30! You get ADVFN's premium top lists which I think are a must for finding great stock picks. That includes great lists like ex dividend dates, plus chart breakouts and downs. All as explained in the book.
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Just mail me at robbiethetrader@aol.com if you'd like any of these with "advfn offers" in the subject line. Please note if you want to discontinue the sub you need to give a month's notice by post. L2 offer includes silver and bronze.
Markets
EMAILS: I do beg you not to send me emails asking me for advice on a particular share. It isn't legal for me to give you individual advice and all I do is send you a mail saying that, which wastes a lot of my time and yours too.
****
COPYING TRADES: I can't stop you from copying a trade I made but remember the price may already be a lot higher than I paid indeed I hope it is as buying at good prices is what I do for a living. You may be buying at the top and could easily lose money. Also I can make terrible mistakes and have done in the past. I could also sell before you or before the share tanks. I may still be holding in a year when you sold at a loss. Always do your own research, don't jump in blindly. Market makers are very clever at knowing how to make you pay top dollar and then push you out at a loss. This site is about sensible investment and learning how to trade sensibly and is not a tipping site. Beware. Never push buy on anything till you've done proper research and got yourself a sensible price.
***
The Naked Trader Radio Show!
Just click here to listen
https://soundcloud.com/thenakedtrader/radioshow2018
Please treat it as entertainment only! Keep a notepad handy
if you want to take part in the £200 competition. Of course
no individual investment advice is meant. If you don't like the music don't whinge
just fast forward to the bits you want !
**
The market feels as knackered as a pret baguette.
Last week was just awful.
Lots of problems abound. Headlines tell us various reasons
for a bad week: Italy, political problems, higher bond
yields, fall in oil prices. The temperature is higher than it
should be in October! Take your pick!
Looking further into the future it isn't so much Brexit to
worry about, there will probably be some fudge. It's
Corbyn. We are screwed if he gets in. The young have
no idea what they will be voting in.
The upside for me is I can just get out of the markets and
go and do other things. Indeed, hey, maybe I ought to
vote for him! Vote Jez. Sell, everything, go short,
enjoy the profits.
A bit selfish, I suppose, given the country will be screwed.
October generally isn't a great month either, if there are
falls it is often at this point.
Anyhow what a weird week last week was! Summary
for me was the main Isa lost £75k on paper just like that (literally
just on market maker markdowns). It has
recovered last couple of days.
But .. some substantial ftse shorts brought in about
more than that into the spreadbetting accounts as those
of you who came to the seminars could see for yourselves.
So how did this crazy few days all work out for me?
On the previous Friday at the follow up
seminar everything had seemed normalish..
though shares didn't seem that happy and were heading
down a bit. So we discussed shorting quite a lot.
Rather handily as it proved. Indeed a couple of FTSE
shorts we made on the day ended up £5,000 in profit
by a week later. In fact one just put on for £1 ended
up £400 higher!
I did emphasise in a falling market forget stop losses
and concentrate on getting out if you bought something
but then the market continues to fall.
So I bought one
or two things but early on Monday it was obvious to
get out quick and they got booted for small losses (around
£150 ish).
An example was a share at 460 - looked like very good
support there so bought a small starter pos. But, get
out quick was set at 455. On Monday it was hit and
I was out. Just as well. Three days later it was 410.
If I'd stayed in now I would be down more than 10pc
- instead I could soon just buy back a lot lower.
Tuesday I top sliced, sold a lot of things and pushed up
the cash pile and added to shorts. Cashed in on
some bigger longer-term ones.
Wed and Thu I added more shorts, but began to
look at potential bargains too.
Fri I cashed in some of the giant profits building in
shorts and began looking at buying. However some
big shorts remain. Right now in the mood
to take advantage of some markdowns.
My cash pile has gone up to over the £500,000
mark now.
That money will sit there and be used if there is a real
smashdown. Gives me firepower to buy shares at distressed
prices at some point.
But I did sit there on Tuesday as I sold stuff off. And I thought.
How about just selling everything and taking a year out?
After all, I've made a ton. I don't need more money. And I
have three writing projects that I am really enjoying working
on but would love to do full time for a while.
I figured I could get out of everything in a day, easy. How would
I feel about it? Maybe good? Maybe weird?
Maybe sell most of everything?
How much life do I have left and how much more do I want
to give watching numbers going up and down?
But then I think. Yes, I still enjoy it, love the detective work, that
is a pleasure.
At the moment I think there must be a half way house and that
is to reduce heavily, buy less and work on the other
projects more.
I think I am just about there in the half way house
department with the big cash pile. The shorts take a little
looking after though.
I am going to be very careful about what I buy
new and get out if it goes wrong. Even
if you find something good that doesn't mean it
won't go down in a panicky general sell off.
In fact nearly every chart we looked at yesterday
had a down tail spike at the end.
The question is, are these down spikes real or not?
Will they all resume where they were? Or is there
more downside to come?
I really wish I knew for sure, that would help!
But. During the sell off last week I resolutely held on
to a number of shares that had declared ahead of
statements or otherwise nothing much had changed.
These were shares where I was already up a lot, say
more than 70pc.
A sell off is a good time to go through a portfolio and
have a clean out of anything where there are question
marks, it is too highly rated or you are simply worried.
What was very interesting about the fall in small caps
were the devious market makers marking down shares
by 10pc before the market even opened!
In effect, a false fall. Then take the panicked sellers.
Drop a bit more and then start to shift the price up.
They are clever.
A lot of great ideas came up at the follow up seminar thanks to some amazing attendees I hardly bother
to look for new ones for ages afterwards! And
also yesterday.
Of course it doesn't mean right now is the time to buy, better
to have a list of decent ones and wait for the right time.
So thanks to some amazing contributions I have a
brilliant shortlist of shares I am looking to buy when
the right time comes.
Stockopedia as ever is SO useful. It really
is a must have!
Brilliant stats on all shares, amazing stock screens and even
discussion boards that are actually sensible and not barmy
blokes having a go at each other as if they were pissed in
a pub. Or weird obsessives.
And some fantastic talented writers/commentators too like Paul
Scott.
Stockopedia.com/nakedtrader gets you a big discount
and 14 days free trial.
Oh and a reminder it's your last chance to win £200 on
the naked trader radio show. Keeping the competition
open till Monday! Link is here:
https://soundcloud.com/thenakedtrader/radioshow2018
The £200 and £100 Comp winners published here on next update.
The craziness of the last few days makes it very difficult
to decide what to do, whether experienced or not. You
could literally pop out for a cuppa, come back and find
your fave share way down for no real reason.
With a weak market and wanting to go more heavily into
cash I ended up banked some winners and kicked out some losers
which as I mentioned earlier pushed my cash balance
up to over £500,000.
But I also bought one or two on weakness - but
only lightly dipping in for the mo.
Trifast (TRI) is a decent company that has pulled back away so
bought some speculatively on the downturn which of course
can be risky.
Its slogan is "holding the world together". Indeed, it is
what it does. It makes things like the cogs that for
example hold your washing machine together!
Profits look good and are on the up and it says it is
well prepared for whatever Brexit will throw at us.
Looks a very well run company, it peaked around 280 so
an entry price in the low 200s looks enticing. Even
so I won't hang about if the market tanks further.
I also had a dip into some Syncona. (SYNC) Janet
came up with this one at the follow up.
A share with low debt and good prospects -
a healthcare investment co backed by Cancer
Research UK and the Wellcome Trust. 0.3pc of
NAV goes to a range of charities which is nice.
It has some quality investment with some decent
recent returns. It focuses on investing and building
global leaders in life sciences.
It looks cheapish and could be a nice isa grower. Barclays
don't seem to deal in it but other accounts I have do.
I also bought some more Strix (Ketl). Unusual for me to
buy more of something that has gone down but it
looks very good value so will take the chance.
Talked about this one in the last update with its
new coffee machine collaboration. Looks to have a
bright future. Of course if it becomes a falling knife it
will be sliced.
Big caveat with all buys at the mo, will be out fast if they start
to tank in another down dip, as another down dip
could get nasty.
FFX was sold for a tiny profit but I bought
them back lower as they still look cheap.
Some decent shorts were examined at that seminar too and
my favourite short had to be Just Eat (JE.)
(Shorting means betting on shares to go down for beginners)
This one faces a lot of competition in its market and on its
own forecasts, the shares trade on a high multiple
and now has debt after it bought rival Hungry House.
Shares are falling and it seems an interesting short idea for
probably the shorter-term. A guaranteed stop loss seems
sensible just in case the weak price attracts a bid.
I took a loss of £450 in AMO. The moment you see a warning
like that it has to be shoot now, ask questions afterwards. Perhaps one to come back to soon though.
NWF has gone for a loss of £57. No actually worries, it just feels
like it will never ever move again.
Cbox ended up racing higher and I couldn't resist slicing
off the profit which was a very nice profit of £4,912.
Then a very nice ahead of statement. I am looking for a decent
re-entry point hoping a few profit takers gives me that point!
Cerillion went for a profit of £1,808 -
it has had a very nice run, well over target time to bank.
Scpa has gone for a profit of £573 Vec went
for breakevenish. Just no buyers from 80.
Sold half of Science which is up for sale for a profit
of £550. Fcrm went for a profit of £525. Clarke
was axed for a profit of £1,105. I think that's the lot.
If I remember any more will add to the list.
Great ahead of statements from Ab Dynamics and Sopheon. They
both went up 10pc, would have been more in an up market. And
so far they held onto a good portion of the gains. Avon Rubber is
bouncing up again.
Shorts in IG and Plus have really brought in the money with
massive profits on each. Profits are really big on Plus and
I think it might be sensible to bank some or all of those gains
before Oct 23 trading statement.
ETO has really bucked the trend and has moved nicely
higher. And other decent shares are doing ok.
I see shares in Patisserie Valerie have been suspended after
possible fraudulent accounting. Lucky I don't own these but it
is a warning that anything could happen to any share you
hold however diligent you are.
AIM shares especially have less regulation and there have been
some cases where it appears figures have been made up. It isn't
just AIM it has happened in FTSE 100 too a la tesco.
The lesson I think is: just be careful about holding a massive
amount of any one share in proportion to the pot of
money you have available. Especially if it is on the smaller end.
You ought not to be in the position where one going under
will really affect you financially.
But also it is shocking : how can you trust figures from
any company if they might be manipulated or wrong?
How it it fair that those holding Patisserie shares should take
a big hit when they bought the shares under false pretences?
Maybe we need new rules so shareholders should be
compensated and cash returned to them if there is
malpractice. It just doesn't seem right, or fair. If I
owned them I would be furious.
Looks like the shares will be down 90 pc if they come
back on the market. How unfair is that to those
who bought in good faith on the figures?
Isn't there a case for small shareholders at least
to get some compensation? Perhaps Luke Johnson
should stick £5m of his massive fortune into a fund
to pay out small shareholders.
If it was me, I really think I would do something. At
the very least, free cake for a year.
The problem is with AIM shares is, can you trust
the figures you are given?
So, tricky October times. I suspect beginners should be wary
and perhaps stand aside till things settle down. Why take
the risk?
It's possible it could remain tricky till December but that would
make a year-end rally as decent as it has been the
last few years.
In the end there is no correct answer, there never is
in the stock market. You just have to be sensible if
possible.
Sentiment is a strange thing. It can reverse just like
that - if it does, I shall be buying more. I will just try
to slowly follow the numbers.
If you are thinking of shorting cheapest way to short is spreadco.com/nakedtrader
as their spread is the tightest at 0.8. Also very
pleased with execution - FTSE cos the cheapest spreads
there too.
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Stockopedia is indeed like a stock market encyclopedia and a great place to scan for new shares to buy, check out fundamentals...there is even a stock screen loosely based on my criteria! You can try it for free too.
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This will explain what you can expect to earn and how it all works. If you sign up there you'll be under my wing. Any questions just mail me and if you sign up please let me know.
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Trade tables follow! Trades are current open and recently closed trades. Closed trades feature the closing price and the amount I won or lost. All others are open. Trades get updated a little later than the narrative. Trading costs are ignored, however I also do not add in dividend payments and with the kinds of companies I buy, dividends tend to equal or outweigh costs. Spread rollovers ignored for web purposes. Tables as accurate as poss however a mistake or two can creep in and very occasionally if I forgot I sold or bought something it will be added at a later time. Trades first reported in the diary under Markets every other Thursday afternoon.